Honor... Courage... Commitment

Warm and snow-less

2012-02-01T13:52:00.004-05:00

This winter continues its warm and snow-less march to spring. The current temperature here in Annapolis is 67F, and today's high temperatures here and to our west might top out at 70F! For the first day of February, warmth like that is impressive.

What is governing this warmth? While the atmospheric system is incredibly complex, it often can be diagnosed effectively through the use of climate indices: two that are popular are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO measures sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean and NAO measures sea level pressures between Iceland and the Azores islands. While the causality of both remains debatable, the effects of each are pretty well known: both affect the frequency, amplitude, and translation of planetary waves, which in turn affect cloud cover, precipitation, and temperature.

The NWS Office in Sterling, VA (who forecasts for us here in Annapolis) has put together a great brief on the combined effects of ENSO & NAO on snowfall in Washington, DC. The years with above-normal snowfall (>15.5" in a year) almost always occur during a negative phase of the NAO, and the majority of the snowy years occur when ENSO is either neutral or warm. The combination of those two yields upper-level troughing and below-normal temperatures over the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S.

The current ENSO Index is -0.979, and the NAO index is around +0.25. On the phase-space diagram from the NWS, that puts us in the upper-left quadrant- the one with the least snowy years. Furthermore, and even less encouraging, is the ensemble NAO forecast, which calls for mostly +NAO for the next 2 weeks. By the time the NAO goes negative again, we'll be heading toward spring!

Woohoo, finally a nice forecast!

2012-01-28T23:42:00.002-05:00

The GFS model has *finally*, for the first time this winter, given us a snow forecast here in Maryland that does not appear in the 200+ hr time period! This prediction is the first time the model has shown a solution like this, so we have to wait for subsequent model runs to look for consistency. For comparison, none of the other major models - at least in their a.m. runs from earlier today - showed a solution like this. Regardless, here's the prediction at 144 h, so we'll see how it pans out in 6 days.

Some wintry weather (finally)?

2012-01-20T15:59:00.004-05:00

Robust cold air advection has finally set in (it's January 20!), and precipitation will begin falling here by midnight. The combination of the two should give us our first true accumulating wintry precipitation event: up to 1" of snow, then a quick changeover to sleet, then to freezing rain, then finally to rain. By 15Z (10 a.m.) we should be all rain in Annapolis. This will be an interesting event to watch, for several reasons: (1) sleet/freezing rain are less common here than snow or rain; (2) surface cold/dry air is more entrenched than NWP models are predicting (we're at 34F/12F in Annapolis now, which gives a wet-bulb temperature around 25F - plenty cold for freezing/frozen precipitation. Locations to our east and north are similar (34/12 at Cape May, NJ; 36/10 at Ocean City, MD), so it will take a while to advect in warmer air. Thus we'll have to see how things pan out.

Of course I have a flight tomorrow at 11:35 a.m. to New Orleans for the AMS meeting. I expect some delays, but hopefully not an outright cancellation (although with how tight Southwest's flight schedule is, given that my plane will have already likely made 2 take-offs & landings by the time it leaves BWI late-morning, nothing is certain). Here are NAM model predictions of 2m temp, accumulated snow, and composite reflectivity, all valid at 7 a.m.

Another paper submitted!

2012-01-18T16:31:00.002-05:00

My student co-authors, Sean and Sarah, and I have been busy the past 9 months. Today we submitted the fruits of those labors, a paper to Atmospheric Environment presenting a clear connection between surface ozone and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I think tonight I'll celebrate a little, but then tomorrow it's back on the treadmill (another grant proposal, meetings about summer activities, etc.) Still it feels good to submit the paper, especially considering the research is a good break from things I have done in the past (PhD, postdoc).

Not much time below freezing this winter

2012-01-12T20:51:00.002-05:00

This winter has been pretty warm. Except for one morning when the temperature plunged to 15F, Annapolis has spent most of the winter above freezing. Using the NOAA tidal gauge station 8575512 data from 01 Dec-12 Jan, Annapolis has been below freezing 50.7 hours (out of a possible 1008 hours), less than 5% of the time. Measuring days when the temperature went below 30F gives far fewer hours: only 27.8 hours below 30F in the past 41 days (an avg of 30 mins/day below 30F). We'll see how the next few days go (the prediction is for some colder air for the next week), but needless to say, the first 1/2 of "meteorological winter" (Dec, Jan, and Feb) has been noticeably warm.

No sign of any snow whatsoever

2012-01-12T16:23:00.002-05:00

Since returning from the Dominican Republic a week ago, I've been regularly checking the middle- and long-range forecast models for any hint at winter precipitation. We received a surprise 1/2" of snow on Monday - falling from an upper-level environment clearly supportive of snow, but into a low-level thermal profile that, at least at first glance, wasn't that supportive (sfc temps at precip onset were 36F). Turns out low-level dry air advection (dew point temps 23-25F) allowed just enough wet bulb (evaporative) cooling to bring the surface closer to 33-34F. As soon as precip ended, temperatures returned to near 36F, providing some support for the evaporative cooling scenario.

For getting anything beyond that quick 1/2", though, the long-range forecast is bleak. Both GFS and ECMWF mid- and long-range predictions (out to 240h) bring several surface low pressure systems across the eastern U.S., but always to the west of the Appalachians, placing Annapolis in the "warm sector" of the cyclones and ensuring the precipitation falls as rain.

We'll have to see how the rest of the winter shapes up, but at least for the next 7-10 days, the outlook for significant accumulating snow in the non-mountain mid-Atlantic is bleak.

The year is closing...

2011-12-30T11:03:00.005-05:00

... and to celebrate, I'm spending a week in the Dominican Republic. I ordered a map, and the Lonely Planet travel guide, and have spent the past month charting a weeklong plan to explore the country. If all goes according to plan (and it never does, but that's part of the fun, isn't it?), here's what my itinerary will be:

Saturday: Arrive in Punta Cana around 1:30 p.m., grab a rental car, and head toward the beach resort of Juan Dolio (about 2-3 hrs drive west), along the south coast. Ring in 2012 in the "Casa de Beatrice", hopefully with some Dominicans (it seems Beatrice is an European ex-pat... nothing wrong with that, just hope to hang with some locals, too!)

Sunday: spend the morning on a beach, then head back east to La Romana to hang with Alexander Hernandez, a connection I met via couchsurfing.org. Never done a couchsurf before, so this should be interesting.

Monday: bid adieu to Alex and head up the highway to Las Terrenas on the Samana peninsula, staying at Nicki's Art & Surf Hostel. Again the photos online are pretty wild, so this should be a funky place to stay, too. They say they have a rooftop terrace where you can star-gaze without much light pollution- that sounds pretty cool!

Tuesday: Head west again from Las Terrenas (spending the morning either on a beach or on horseback to the El Limon waterfall, depends on how I feel I guess!) toward Luperon, another primarily ex-patriot (German, this time) community. Stay at the guest house La Casa del Sol. Maybe they'll have some neat foods to try?

Wednesday: After a beach morning, head down the country again to the town of Bani, staying at the Hotel Caribani. Depending on when I arrive, either head inland to do some exploring, or walk around town to see what's up.

Thursday: Hang out in the morning on one of the beaches nearby, then head back east to the capital, Santo Domingo. Staying at the renowned Hotel Duque de Wellington. Probably head into the city at night to see what it's all about.

Friday: Explore Santo Domingo by morning, head east to the town of Higuey at night. Today is a national holiday (the day of the wise men's visit to Jesus), so something extra might be in store today (or perhaps just less traffic?!)

Saturday: beach in the morning, turn in the rental car and head back for the airport. Arrive back at Washington-Dulles (IAD) around 8:30 p.m., clear immigration & customs, grab my car, and head for my comfortable bed in cold Annapolis.

Happy New Year to you and yours, however and wherever you choose to spend it!

'Tis 4 nights before Christmas and...

2011-12-21T21:07:00.003-05:00

'Tis 4 nights before Christmas and:

1. The temperature|dew point combination at 9:00 p.m. at KNAK was outrageous. 64/59, a combination more likely seen at 9 pm in late September than in late December! The resultant theta-e must be at least 1 standard deviation above normal (maybe 2).

2. Another paper submission (this one to Atm. Environ) keeps inching itself closer to being done. The intro & methodology sections are written, and the figures are (mostly) made, just have to write up the results & discuss them. Target date: 30 Dec. We'll see!

3. All but 2 of my Annapolis gifts have been delivered

4. I'm heading to N. Carolina in 2 days!

5. There's essentially no hint at all of any snow for either central NC or MD for the next 10 days.

6. The Dominican Republic sounds like a great place to spend the first week of January, doesn't it? :)

7. UNC just beat Texas in basketball. OU gets its 2 chances later in 2012.

8. Work-related travel is getting closer- AMS in Jan, Chile/Ecuador in Mar, SWIFT in May, and summer?

9. Summer funding is still up in the air. I'm hopefull for NSF, but I guess if nothing comes through I'll have a couple of months to myself - not a terrible alternative (just a costly one!)

In other news...

2011-12-09T11:52:00.002-05:00

In other news (besides weather), the next few weeks look to remain busy. I'm wrapping up taking a Spanish class, and working with the professor to publish a study on the effect of gender on second-language acquisition. I'd love to get the paper submitted by about the first week of classes next semester (get it out of our hair!). This weekend I'm hosting a barbeque watch party for Round 1 of the "Superclasico" between Real Madrid and Barcelona soccer teams. Still not sure how many people will be over, but I'll probably end up with around 15 or so. Sunday afternoon is our Oceanography department annual Christmas gathering, and then afterwards I'm having the 4 students who are going with me to Santiago and Quito over for dinner and to discuss trip logistics.

I'm also furiously working with my two research students this year to study relationship of the MJO to air quality in Santiago. We have very interesting results in both studies - results that will be publishable - just need to carry on with the projects. I'm traveling with both students to the AMS annual meeting in New Orleans in January. They'll be presenting, as will I. It'll be the first conference I've been to since the AMS regional meeting (mesoscale) back in Los Angeles in late July.

Travel for the next 5 months:

late Dec: to N.C. for Christmas with family
early Jan: to Dominican Republic for vacation
late Jan: to New Orleans and AMS Annual Meeting
mid Mar: to Santiago and Quito for LREC
mid May: to Great Plains (Okla, Texas, etc) for SWIFT

Lots of fun in the upcoming days! Good thing the weather is quiet (for now, lol!)

Weather, yes, but precipitation?

2011-12-09T11:50:00.002-05:00

After last weekend's predictions of a coastal low and snow for Maryland didn't verify too well (the ground was just too warm, although we did get 3"+ of precipitation!), is it sad that you have to look allll the way out to the 384-hr forecast time to see any hint at frozen precip for Maryland? (As an aside, the 384-hr forecast would be for Christmas eve/day!) The next 10+ days look mostly dry and seasonable. Temperatures in the 20s/30s in the morning and in the 40s/50s during the afternoon. Weather? Yes. But no precipitation. Will be following it.

I like this forecast

2011-12-05T10:08:00.003-05:00

This forecast is pretty sweet. We'll see if the same NAM, which fooled with Oklahoma over the weekend (where it predicted a snowy day today 72 hrs ago and instead it's just mostly cloudy), actually gives us the 'good stuff'. Stay tuned...

A poignant, pensive day

2011-11-06T15:36:00.003-05:00

Today started with my normal run- started here, went around the stadium and down to Gate 1 of USNA, then back around the stadium and back home (about 4 miles total). I quickly showered and set out again to the stadium to watch the start of the Ripley Race, a 5k run in honor of those who have been injured (some killed) in the last 11 yrs of continuous US combat. The pre-race pep talk was hard to take in: I'm not one for the kind of 'rah-rah' talk that seems to get others excited (much preferring instead to appeal to my intellect, reason, and argument -particularly when it comes to issues of social justice- to get me on board for a cause). That, and I'm also not in favor of mhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifany of the actions of the US military abroad (the incredible irony of "compassionate conservatism" comes to mind here- how little compassion was truly shown during the 8 yrs of George W. Bush)... I imagine this exact dilemma I've just described was one of the primary problems upon the conclusion of the Vietnam conflict: that normal citizens, not being in favor of the military action, had a hard time supporting the people involved in those actions. Plus, since the role of today's soldier (sailor, airman, etc.) is a paying one (quite well-paying, at that) - provoking mental imagery of a mercenary - I personally wrestle with bestowing the title of "hero" on the guys. This country loves that narrative, though, and it is way over-used.

However, watching the runners go by, I'm still able to quickly recall the image of one of the last 'runners' - a young guy, probably about my age, walking with two prostetic legs, being accompanied by two other young guys. I found out later that the 3 are (were) Marines, and the guy without legs was injured recently in Iraq. That's a hard image to pack away succinctly- even with some thought. Is he (the amputee) a hero? I can't help thinking "what a waste" - that his sacrifice of his legs was in vain, for a country that viewed him as an occupying force and for his own country that might be worse off in the near future (via both stirring up of additional anti-west sentiment and the huge economic deficits incurred) by his presence there. That he might not be a hero isn't an opinion very popular- but maybe if we stoped idolizing the war narrative, we'd not get in so many damn wars!

Ok, anyway, I took a few pictures of the race (attached), then came on back home. The rest of the morning and early afternoon passed uneventfully. But now I'm in a pensive mood again, spurred by 2 powerful editorials in today's New York Times. The first was written by Sarah Shourd, who recounted in vivid detail her suffering in Iran primarily through months-long periods of solitary confinement. The next recounted, again in vivid detail, the suffering of school children in Alabama who are being bullied and discriminiated against because of their immigration status (something they had nothing to do with!). Both pieces illustrate the still-ongoing depravity of mankind, and are exactly the types of intellectual appeals to my sense of justice that get me 'riled up'.

For inspiration, I got the idea to find President John Kennedy's inaugural address online and listen/read it, and just finished leading up to the typing of this post. In the address, Kennedy didn't back down from being strong militarily, but he held a powerfully nuanced view of it: (1) that the world's collective military power had the potential to wipe out humanity (Kennedy used language like "the final war", perhaps invoking WWI's "the war to end all wars", except this time nuclear war would indeed do it, b/c the species that survived it wouldn't be advanced enough to carry out any more wars), and (2) the overall vision of seguring human rights for everyone across the globe trumps everything, including our own nation's prosperity.

Your thoughts?

Ahhh, the colors of autumn in Annapolis

2011-11-02T18:34:00.009-04:00

Here are some pictures taken today around my neighborhood.

It was a snowy October day . . .

2011-10-31T06:58:00.002-04:00

... and a record-breaking early snow it was. The surface low and upper trough took a classic track - intensifying off Norfolk and moving up the east coast just offshore. Some of the totals are very impressive: >20" in several states. For October, when the waters and ground are still relatively warm, this was an especially significant event.

On the western shore of the Chesapeake, we didn't see any accumulation, but we did see flakes flying at mid-day Saturday. Points to our west (Frederick, Hagerstown, etc) and north into PA and NJ saw far more snow than we did (Frederick ~3"). Here's a satellite from Sunday a.m. showing the accumulation swath.

Proposals and laboratories

2011-10-23T16:56:00.002-04:00

So since my summer funding has run out, I've been working hard(er) this year to line up something for June-Aug 2012. Over the summer I submitted a proposal to NSF to study intraseasonal variability of air quality (specifically ozone). We'll see how that comes out, as it's presently in external review. Then two weeks ago a colleague (from Oceanography) and I submitted another proposal to NSF, this time looking at the Arctic and intraseasonal variability there. We'll also see how that goes. Finally, last week I met with representatives from Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia national laboratories to talk about visiting faculty programs. It might work out that I could visit one of the labs and work with one (or more) of their scientists on a project of our mutual choosing (perhaps, and ideally, overlapped with one or both of the above-mentioned NSF proposals). Eight weeks in Livermore- wouldn't that be cool?!

In other news, I've had some good success with internal funding in other projects involving students: (1) my SWIFT colleague worked to support another 10 students' participation next year, which is great news for them! (2) My proposal to take 4 students to Ecuador & Chile is forwarded up the chain of command for final approval, so we'll see if we head there next March.

A tale of the "C's": conferences, California, and Colorado

2011-10-19T21:51:00.019-04:00

Back in the last week of July and the first week of August, I went out to present at the AMS Mesoscale Conference in Los Angeles. I enjoyed a great few days of talks, research brainstorming, interaction with old friends, meeting of new friends, jogs around LAX (not a terrible place after all to have a conference... the sidewalks are wide and the road leading to the beach actually not that traveled at all!) My talk went well, and also my visit with my friend Dianne (we went out to Malibu). After LA, I flew to Denver and spent a few days there, first in a personal retreat to the Great Sand Dunes National Park west of Pueblo, then up to Mt. Democrat south of Frisco, then into Denver itself for the weekend, and then finally up to Ft. Collins and Colorado State University for a week-long COMET Satellite Workshop. Each of the experiences in Colorado went very well. Here are some pictures.

Cru Fall Retreat, 14-16 Oct 2011

2011-10-16T14:34:00.007-04:00

I had the opportunity again this year to join the Cru chapter at USNA (formerly "Campus Crusade for Christ", changed to simply "Cru" this past summer) at their annual Fall Retreat. It was a great weekend of teaching, fellowship, worship, and fun, and I particularly enjoyed the many great opportunities to interact with midshipmen - including 3 students I have this semester! Here are some pictures.

Autumn, in full force

2011-10-10T19:21:00.002-04:00

The weather finally dried up after a month of rain, clouds, and muggy dew point temperatures. Now fall is in full swing! With that a strange set of tropical systems moving *eastward* across the eastern Pacific. One of them, Jova, is headed for, or just north, of Manzanillo.

What a confidence-inspiring bunch of folks

2011-09-22T14:58:00.002-04:00

The news out of Washington this afternoon is that the next stop-gap spending bill - to fund the government past Sept. 30 - failed to pass the House of Representatives. What a thrilling bit of information - that yet again that group of people couldn't agree on funding. Is anyone else tired of this? Round 3 of brinkmanship, except the pawn here is the country, its reputathttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifion, and its people. As Congress is scheduled to go on another recess (do these people actually work?!) tomorrow, they have to pass something by then, otherwise I'm out of a job in a week. Come on people, your vapid behavior is irksome (at least) and damaging.

Attack of the 70 degree F dew points!!

2011-09-22T09:08:00.004-04:00

Ugh. Here we are at the first day of solar autumn and still suffering from dew point temperatures at or over 70F! My morning jog was drenching - both as I collided (and coalesced) with the misty droplets hanging about, and also from the lack of significant evaporation from my skin. Where are the sunny, dry days with temperatures in the 70s in the day, 50s in the night? We're 9 days from October and before we know it our highs will be struggling to break 65F. Perhaps if we had some sun things might be perceived differently (we're going on Day 4 without appreciable sunlight).

Odds & ends

2011-09-18T19:32:00.004-04:00

I spent part of this past weekend in North Carolina, joining Mom, Dad, and Kim in the 4th Annual Run, Walk, and Roll 5k race in Greenville. Dad and I were going to go to a football game afterwards, but the rainy weather (or chance of rain/drizzle) squelched those plans. While the trip was short - arriving 8:45 p.m. Fri, leaving 4:45 p.m. Sat - it was fun. Plus I set a personal best 5k time - 21:27! Maybe next year I can shoot for < 21:20? I've included a few photos below.

Fall weather is finally up us! We have had stratus clouds and highs in the 60s F the past few days, definitely a stark change from the humidity and sun of June, July, and August. The week after Hurricane Irene brought a taste of that weather, although the week was very sunny. Two more cold fronts are expected this week, with high temperatures behind each falling back into the 60s.

On Tuesday my colleague and I are presenting highlights from our SWIFT internship to the Annapolis USNA Alumni Chapter. I think we've built up quite a bit of goodwill from the USNA administration with this internship, one that can only help its future longevity.

Next month I'm connecting with Cru, Navy's Christian extracurricular activity, in two significant ways. First I'll be speaking to the chapter on Tue 04 Oct, and after that, I'll head to southern PA to their Fall Retreat on 14-16 Oct. I went on the retreat last year, too, and enjoyed the opportunity to connect with students in a way very different from the normal classroom interaction.

In November I'm considering visiting Scandanavia again - I spent Spring Break 2009 in Norway; this time I'm looking to fly into Helsinki and work my way down to Copenhangen, spending one night each in Helsinki, Stockholm, and Copenhagen. Anyone who's been to any of those countries have any tips? Things to see, eat, etc.? The plane fares are reasonable that time of year, so why not take advantage of the holiday?

Finally I've applied again for funds to take students to the Andes Mtns, this time during Spring Break 2012. Will see how the process goes (the due date for proposals was just this past Fri.), but hopefully I'll get to lead 4 more students in an exciting trip discovering language, culture, and science in South America.

Will 2011 be the new record year?

2011-09-11T18:02:00.002-04:00

This month the Arctic reaches its sea ice coverage minimum - and it is a race to see whether 2011 will tie or best 2007, the current minimum extent. Will a summer ice-free Arctic be far behind?

Autumn rains ...

2011-09-08T13:18:00.003-04:00

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee, combined with a stationary upper-level closed low, have brought quite a bit of rain to the greater Annapolis area. I posted last night about the interesting discrepancies in radar-estimated totals vs. gauges. After that post, Annapolis received about another 1.5" of rain, bringing our total to 4.57". Here is a plot of hourly, and total, rainfall, along with radar estimated totals (which are significantly higher just to our west).

What an interesting day!

2011-09-07T22:19:00.004-04:00

So on a day with a north-south oriented warm front, heavy rain, tornadoes, coastal flooding, 3 tropical systems spinning in the Atlantic, and Spanish class work & Methods class prep to do, I still managed to submit a travel proposal to NSF. We'll see how it gets reviewed (or if it even gets reviewed? - I've never submitted that kind of a proposal before).

Now on to the weather:

This morning awoke to find a 13F temperature increase in Annapolis overnight, from 65F yesterday to 78F today. This can be attributed to the passage of a warm front, which moved through us and promptly stalled about 40 km to our west. Seeing how the front axis has been the axis for very heavy rainfall today, I think we were fortunate to have the front move to our west. We've still received 2.72" of rain in the past 3 days at KNAK. It's interesting to compare that gauge total to the radar estimated storm total. The pixels of the KLIX radar are at least 1.5 km x 1.5 km out here at Annapolis (about 60 km from the radar), and the estimates for our area are quite varied. Two of the pixels divide right over my house (about 2 km from the gauge): one indicates 4.00" storm-total rainfall, the other 3.28". The KNAK station is even luckier, located at the intersection of 4 pixels! One is 2.64", another 3.04", a third 2.08", and the final one 2.48". Which one is right? They're all right overhead of the gauge (within a few hundred meters of it). That's quite a spread for one location - up to 0.96" difference. The gauge actually is on the high end of the estimates, again at 2.72" for the same period. Very interesting indeed!

Some Irene statistics

2011-08-30T16:14:00.005-04:00

Here are some maps of Irene rainfall (Maryland and the eastern US) and wind gusts (in N. Carolina and Maryland). The precipitation estimates I believe come primarily from radar, perhaps augmented with gauge data. Note the axis of heavy rain left-of-track, which is unusual for such a storm. Perhaps it interacted (un)favorably with an upper-level trough to produce such heavy rainfall. Several local soundings (Wallops Island, Dulles, Albany) showed strong warm air advection profiles before the arrival, probably enhancing the rainfall totals.

Water, water, nowhere

2011-08-30T16:06:00.003-04:00

In contrast to the East Coast, which has had quite a wet summer (augmented substantially by Hurricane Irene), the Southern Plains can hardly buy a drop of water. Nearly all of Texas and Oklahoma are in exceptional drought. The city of Wichita Falls, TX (about 2 hrs drive northwest of Dallas) has only had 5.8" of rainfall this water year (which ends next month, 30 Sept), compared to the previous record-low rainfall of 14.47" (thanks, A. Culp, for pointing out that 14.47" is not the normal rainfall but instead the current [but likely to fall] record low rainfall).. That dry ground has got to be taking a toll on aquifers, not to mention cattle and people. Maybe the disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea this afternoon will work its way west and north without developing too much. The 12Z GFS takes it to the LA/TX border region in about 5 days, enough to give some drought relief to parts of the area.

Rain, yes. Wind, not so much.

2011-08-28T17:20:00.005-04:00

Hurricane Irene is quickly becomming extratropical over Canada. Impacts in Annapolis were mostly due to rainfall, although the 30-50 mph winds sure did a number on the electrical grid (tens of thousands of customers out of power in Annapolis, hundreds of thousands along the East Coast). Total rainfall ended up being 5.45" at KNAK, about in line with HPC estimates from Friday (and about 2-3" above what I thought we would receive). Below is a plot of hourly rainfall, cumulative rainfall, and hourly wind gusts and direction from KNAK. Also included are IR images from landfall in NC and closest approach to Annapolis.

A rainmaker, or no?

2011-08-26T10:02:00.003-04:00

**Edit: the 00Z HPC forecast still has us at 5" of rain for the event. My parents in N. Carolina are predicted to receive over 9" of rain. My only thought is too bad this isn't happening in Texas, where a generous soaking of rain would be very welcome.**

This morning's HPC forecast has us receiving between 5-6" of rain from Irene, while the 06Z GFS predicts about 3" of rain. Will be interesting to see what verifies - and of course, whatever falls is heavily dependant on the track that Irene takes. This morning's track forecasts have shifted slightly east from yesterday, keeping Irene and its strongest winds offshore of Maryland. At its closest approach, Irene gets to within 170 km (106 miles) of us. Will be interesting to see what comes up tomorrow - and whether we lose power for any appreciable length of time.

Irene on the way

2011-08-25T12:52:00.005-04:00

After shifting deterministic solutions the past few days, the suite of numerical weather prediction models have reasonably converged on a track for Irene that takes it over Eastern NC, the Delmarva, into New Jersey and then across Long Island and into New England. This track puts a large swath of the eastern U.S. under the impacts, from heavy rain (primarily) to strong wind and surge (right at the coast). Here in Annapolis we're very sensitive to which side of the Chesapeake Bay the center tracks, as a track to our west brings substantial water threats, but a track to our east shields us. Model consensus is to our east, making heavy rain and flash flooding our largest risk.

As for my parents and family who live in Eastern N.C., their risk is of both heavy rain and also wind - enough to knock down trees and cause power outages. The last hurricane to appreciably impact that area was Isabel in 2003.

Here are a few images I've grabbed from the web.

A change of venue, just for one summer afternoon

2011-08-20T19:38:00.000-04:00

Back in July our small group decided to head over to Ulisys's house for a change of venue - and he offered his swimming pool, apple trees, and best of all his grill for a bar-b-que. Here are a few photos.

Pinol - what a food!

2011-08-20T19:31:00.000-04:00

A few weeks ago, Jose, Factor, and Casi came over with a big bag of something that had just arrived from Guatemala. They were all excited to cook this special dish for me - something very Guatemalan. It's like a thick soup, with beef consume, tomatoes, cilantro, salt, pepper, onions, and chicken thighs. They called it "Pinol" - which is also the name of the main ingredient - kind of like a coarsely-ground corn meal. Throw everything together, with some water to make it soupy, and cook on the stovetop for about 20-30 mins. It turned out delicious! Here are two photos.

Hurricane #1 of 2011 in the NATL?

2011-08-20T19:02:00.000-04:00

A disturbance east-northeast of the middle Leeward Islands is showing pretty good organization this afternoon, and will likely become Tropical Storm Irene before the end of the weekend. What remains to be seen, however, is if it will strengthen into the season's first hurricane. The statisticians have noted that with the formation, and now landfall and weakening, of Harvey, the North Atlantic has had 8 named tropical systems now form and dissipate without passing through the hurricane stage - a record for the basin. We'll see what soon-to-be Irene does. Interesting, two of this morning's GFS ensemble members take the circulation center directly over Annapolis in about 9 days (that would be Mon 29 Aug). We'll see how that goes, too!

The start of something new

2011-08-20T18:54:00.000-04:00

In two days, USNA will start yet another fall semester. I always like the fall semester, especially its first days, as it feels full of energy, of optimism, as if it were the start of something new. And for the students, it is new, another semester of new discoveries, new professors, new classmates, new schedules. I think that newness is what makes me like it. As for me, I've been dreaming of that Day 1 lecture since mid-May, but still have quite a bit of work for days 2-31! I'm teaching this course now for the 3rd time, and always have things I want to change and improve. Here's to a great, new semester!

To Niagara we went ... and by Toronto we came

2011-08-20T17:47:00.017-04:00

Over July 4th this year, Charles, Kim, and I took a nice road trip up north together. None of us had been to Niagara Falls or Toronto, so we piled in the car and headed up there. CG & Kim arrived here late Friday night 01 July, spent the night here, and we headed out at 5:45 a.m. on Saturday. We passed by Williamsport, PA, and took some photos of the Little League World Series stadium. Later that morning we drove through upstate NY (who knew there was that much agriculture & farming in an area that is a- in New York, and b- gets darn cold & snowy in winter?). We had packed a lunch, and arrived at the parking area for Niagara around 12:45, just as they were closing it b/c it was full. We ate lunch in the car, then walked around the falls area, snapping photos and being touristy (and dodging the huge crowds that roamed the park). Parking cost us $10 (I think), but at least it was there! After viewing the US side of the river for about 2 hrs, we crossed over to the Canadian side, where parking was much more scarce. I ended up dropping CG & Kim off at one end of the street and doubling back to meet them after they'd snapped a few pics of the Canadian side of the river.

Our curiousity of natural wonders satisfied, we made our way onward to Toronto. After a small detour owing to the supposed closure of the main freeway, the Queen Elizabeth Way (there were only 5 signs leading up to it - so we didn't chance it), we arrived at our hostel, the All Days Hostel. Turns out it's in a great location for exploring downtown Toronto by foot - just a few minutes' walk to the main street, and about 40 mins up from the water. We enjoyed our visit, eating some great local foods & just wandering around the town (I found a Chilean tienda that sold empanadas and humitas!). Sunday morning, we walked around in the morning, including a visit to a church near the hostel, then headed back toward the US. We went east along the northern shore of Lake Ontario and crossed the St. Lawrence River just north of Watertown, NY, at the northern terminus of I-81.

It was a great - but short - vacation, with lots of neat sights, sounds, tastes, and smells! Here is a selection of pictures.

You want to give me how much money?

2011-08-13T00:19:00.002-04:00

This afternoon while flying home from Denver, United Airlines was asking for volunteers to take the next flight (3 hrs later, arriving at 1 a.m.) because the current one was oversold. Of course since my schedule was flexible I volunteered. Turned out, however, that for multiple reasons (no-shows, other delayed flights, etc.), only 2 of the 5 or so volunteers ended up being needed. But since I was the first volunteer, and because the 2nd and 3rd volunteers were traveling together, when the final "no show" didnt board, I was asked to take the flight. The cool thing is that United gave me the denied boarding compensation *anyway*! So basically I got $400 to take my original flight. HOw cool is that? Now, when and where do I want to go? Considering my earlier post about spending more than 20% of the year away from home in Annapolis, I might want to wait a few days before booking that trip! You might remember that my 4-day jaunt to Spain and Portugal was inspired by a $350 travel voucher I got from US Airways while heading to Tahoe last year. I'll take an average of $375/yr in denied boarding compensations, you betcha!

Travel, travel, and more travel

2011-08-13T00:06:00.004-04:00

It's good to be back home in Annapolis! I spent the past two weeks traveling, first in Los Angeles, CA at the AMS Mesoscale Conference, followed by a weekend in Denver, followed by the past week in Boulder at the COMET Faculty Satellite course. All were informative, and I'm inspired to develop great courses and carry out a cutting-edge plan of research. But I'm also tired, and it'll be good to be back here, jog around the stadium, and joke with Casimiro, Factor, Jose, Balta, and all the rest tomorrow. In fact, this last 12-month period, ending right before the start of fall classes, has seen me travel tremendously! On my flight out to LA two weeks ago, I actually counted up how many nights I slept away from my own bed. The list is staggering:

1 night- Iglesia Emanuel campamento de jovenes (late Aug)
4 nights- AMS Mountain Meteo conf (late Aug/early Sept)
2 nights- Greenville (mid-Sept)
2 nights- Cru fall retreat (mid-Oct)
2 nights- Grape Day, Lubbock (late Oct)
4 nights- Spain & Portugal (mid-Nov)
5 nights- Christmas (late Dec)
8 nights- Chile trip (late Dec/early Jan)
3 nights- Nat'l Air Quality Conf (early Mar)
8 nights- Cru spring break trip (mid-Mar)
1 night- French/Adams wedding (mid-Apr)
14 nights- SWIFT (mid/late May)
2 nights- NYC (late June)
1 night- Toronto (early July)
8 nights- NC Beach (early July)
12 nights- AMS Mesoscale conf, Denver, COMET workshop (late Jul/early Aug)
---------
77 nights away from Annapolis, or 21.1% of the year away.

Of these 77, 38 (or 49%) of the nights were for work. That's over 10% of the year on travel for work. What a productive year it's been!

**EDIT** Thanks, Steph W., for reminding me of two trips I forgot to include!

Who's to blame for this $14 trillion debt?

2011-07-29T23:25:00.002-04:00

A very interesting graphic from the NY Times showing what debt accumulated under which presidents. Of the $13 trillion debt incurred since 1980, 30% was accumulated under Democratic presidents (Clinton and Obama) and 70% under Republican presidents (Reagan, Bush, and Bush). That ratio isn't askew, though, because you'll note that Democratic presidents have been in office 10 out of those 30 yrs, indicating that each party is contributing equally to debt. However, this makes me wonder why Republicans are so hell-bent on the austerity measures now, in 2011. Where in the heck have they been since 1980? Only voting in (and/or signing) 70% of the nation's national debt, that's where. What the heck has changed in 2011, that was different from 2005 or 1985? Is it that the country is *worse* off now than then? That we're fighting 2 foreign wars? Economic growth is critical to job creation - quite important to the ~10% of unemployed folk out there now. So the idea is to slice some of the spending that currently contributes to 39% of our country's GDP? (Did any of you realize that nearly 40% of this country's economy is government spending? 40%!! That's a shocking number to me, and I consider myself well-informed). Anyway, we'll see how the next 72 hrs shake out, but in my opinion the attitude down Hwy50 is vitriolic not patriotic, me- or party-first not country-first. And that goes for all 535 of them.

Interesting weather records for Norman, Okla

2011-07-28T07:25:00.004-04:00

I was browsing around yesterday on the Mesonet web site and uncovered an interesting observation. The temperature records for Norman, which go back to 1994 (17 yrs now) and span two sites (in reasonable proximity, NORM and NRMN), show that the all-time record high AND all-time record low for Norman both occurred this year!

Record high: 109F, on 09/July/2011
Record low : -4F , on 10/Febr/2011

(The old site, NORM, recorded 108F in 1998).

What an interesting weather year you've had, Norman! Enjoy the rest of it.

**Edit: Thanks, Karen, for pointing out that Norman has a much longer temperature record than 17 years. I meant just that the Mesonet records start in 1994.

Maybe the first US landfalling tropical cyclone of 2011?

2011-07-26T15:53:00.004-04:00

A tropical wave has been slowly marching westward the past week, now (Tuesday) located south of western Cuba. Convection in the wave has waxed (late last week) and waned (over the weekend), and is now back up again. There also appears to be a mid-level vorticity center co-located (visible satellite imagery hints at rotation) with the disturbance. The dynamical models take it WNW over the next 48-72 hrs and into Texas. Regardless whether it develops, I imagine Texans of all sorts would welcome the rainfall, as they are in serious drought.

What heat we have!

2011-07-22T14:15:00.003-04:00

The last two observations from KNAK, 97/80 and 99/79, have been amazing! The heat index of 118F is probably closest to the highest I've personally experienced... while maximum temperatures in Death Valley in 2003 were higher (over 105F), the dry air made the apparent temperature much lower. This is impressive - and ohttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifppressive. See the last 72 hr trend in temperature, dew point, and heat index for Annapolis KNAK.

*Note: Heat index and relative humidity equations were adapted from the Humidity Formula web site and are appended below.

HI = -42.379 + 2.04901523(Tf) + 10.14333127(RH) - 0.22475541(Tf)(RH) - 6.83783x10**(-3)*(Tf**(2)) - 5.481717x10**(-2)*(RH**(2)) + 1.22874x10**(-3)*(Tf**(2))*(RH) + 8.5282x10**(-4)*(Tf)*(RH**(2)) - 1.99x10**(-6)*(Tf**(2))*(RH**(2)), where

Tf = temperature in Fahrenheit
and RH = relative humidity, given by

E/Es*100, where

Es=6.11*10.0**(7.5*Tc/(237.7+Tc)), and
E=6.11*10.0**(7.5*Tdc/(237.7+Tdc)),

where Tc and Tdc are temperature and dew point temperature in degrees Celsius, respectively.

A nice-looking storm!

2011-07-21T14:54:00.003-04:00

Hurricane Dora, which formed a few days ago south of Guatemala, is now nearly Category 5 intensity. Its satellite presentation today is impressive, so I'm including it here.

The t-storms list had some discussion recently about lower-than-average sea level pressures in the Atlantic Main Development Region, which often favors active seasons. We'll see how the season shapes up- heck, we're already in the throes of a strong heat wave in the mid-Atlantic, so it sure feels like summer.

Ugh!

2011-07-21T14:46:00.003-04:00

Today has been amazingly oppressive (heat wise)! Our morning low didn't go below 80F, and dew point temperatures have been 75-80F all day. Heat indices, as a result, are rocketing up through the 100s, sitting at 109F now in Annapolis. 92/79 will do it to you. Ridiculous. Tomorrow is predicted to be worse, with air temperatures over 95F and similar dew point temps. Here's hoping for an early fall.

Two roadtrips northward, and 25 new counties

2011-07-04T14:43:00.002-04:00

This past weekend, CG, Kim, and I drove to Niagara Falls, then onward to Toronto, returning through northern NY after traveling along the north shore of Lake Ontario. Last weekend, Casi, Jose, Factor, and I went to West New York and then on into Manhattan. Lots of miles on my car, and lots of great memories. Here are two pictures now, as well as my "counties visited" map updated for these trips.

Comings, and goings

2011-06-22T15:00:00.002-04:00

The summer has set in fully. Meteorologically, we're experiencing maximum temperatures approaching 90F daily, with dew point temperatures over 70F and southeast surface winds. Each afternoon has had ample cumulus convection, sometimes precipitating, and it's been over a week now since we had a real front come through. The calendar has also flipped to summer, as today (22 June) is the first full day of summer - and also the day with the most light. Fortunately we'll not loose too many minutes for the next few weeks, but as we head to late August & September, the days will get shorter very quickly.

I'm headed to NYC this weekend, spending time hanging out with the Puluc family - Jose, Casimiro, and Factor's cousins - in West New Jersey (that's where we're staying), and heading into the city on Saturday. Should be fun, and we're all pretty low maintenance (I'm probably the neediest of the group!), so whatever we do (standing in line, riding the subway, just walking around) will be memorable and worth it.

After NY, it's back to Annapolis to celebrate the 4th of July, then headed to North Carolina for the annual Barrett beach vacation. From there, it's to Los Angeles for the AMS Mesoscale Conference (at the airport Marriott- could they have picked a worse place to house us? Ugh!) then on to the COMET satellite course in Boulder. By the time I get back it'll be mid-August, only 10 or so days before the start of fall semester classes.

Should be a full summer of comings and goings!

End of the semester: a backyard storm chase and last Cru of the year

2011-06-06T22:27:00.003-04:00

Jodi and I drove west to intercept storms on the 27 April outbreak (the LWX CWA had two dozen tornadoes, fortunately none of them were violent). One supercell moved across the Potomac and had reportedly produced a tornado in Quantico, VA (and ended up producing another in Camp Springs at Andrews AFB). We intercepted it south-southeast of Bowie and chased it for about 5 miles before letting it go off to our NE. The other pictures are of the last Crusade of the semester.

Some pictures from the road- SWIFT 2011

2011-06-06T22:20:00.003-04:00

We left Annapolis Fri 13 May and returned Fri 27 May. Here are just a few pictures from the road, of good friends and some food!

En Baltimore quedamos parte del día

2011-06-05T23:52:00.006-04:00

Today Casimiro, Factor, Jose Luis, Adelpho, and I went to downtown Baltimore to walk around, see the harbor area, and generally have a good time. The sky was cloudy most of the morning, making for nice walking weather. We went up Federal Hill, craked jokes as we walked past some of the sky scrapers, admired the street performers, and took in the sights of the harbor. It was a nice, short trip, exactly the kind I think we all enjoy: get in, see some cool stuff, and get back out again. Here are a few pictures, mostly taken by Jose. We came back to Annapolis and ate the Chinese buffet as a reward for all our walking.

A la montaña fuimos

2011-06-05T23:27:00.008-04:00

Back on 01 May, Jose Luis, Factor, and I went on a day hike in the Shenandoah National Park, specifically to Old Rag Mountain. We'd been there before, late summer 2009, and had been trying to go back every since. Besides being rainy, overcast, and quite cold for a mid-spring day, we still had fun. Here are some pictures of our summit hike: it took us about 4.5 hrs round-trip, up the Old Rag trail then back down Weakley Hollow fire road.

Do you know what is written on the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty?

2011-06-04T12:41:00.002-04:00

Do you know what is engraved on a tablet on the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty? No, I'm not asking that you know it's Emma Lazurus's poem "The New Colossus"... that's a response to a Jeopardy! question. I'm asking if you know what it *says*. Her words. And for those who do have an idea, do you believe them? Do they speak to a deeply-felt heart emotion of yours?

For me, I love reading them. I've taken some slack from family, even friends for some of my pro-foreign, anti-home stances (example: not putting the US soccer team first last year on my list of teams for the world cup). But this is an area where I glow American: for me, her poem embodies that which is good, which deserves to be celebrated, about my country.

Here are her words. Read them aloud. See if you don't get goosebumps.

The New Colossus
Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

It is from this amazing spirit of unity, of openness, of hospitality, that arises my incredible disdain for the current actions of my government toward immigration - and specifically immigrants. Just this week yet another xenophobic, bigoted state legislature trashed the ideals embodied in her poem, declaring instead the door to be shut. Thank you, sweet home Alabama, where the skies are evidently only for those with blue eyes. You join the ranks of your neighbor Georgia, as well as Kansas, Utah, and Arizona, in your selfishness.

Perhaps some enterprising crowd - maybe North Dakota, whose population peaked in the 1910s and has declined since? - will realize the opportunity and start welcoming again the tempest-tossed. A sorely needed gesture to start blotting out the stain...

Really sweltering here

2011-06-01T14:01:00.004-04:00

This afternoon the heat indices area-wide have been impressive. Stafford, VA was 93/81, Frederickburg 95/79, Martin 88/82, Quantico 88/79, and even Annapolis at 90/75. Those temp/dew point temp combinations result in heat indices of 114F, 113F, 108F, 103F, and 100F, respectively. That means we have August discomfort in late May / early June. Ugh. Fortunately a front is on the move (toward us)- there's a tornado watch to our north and 4500 j/kg of CAPE in the vicinity -and tomorrow looks to be cooler. Bring it!

Start of the season

2011-06-01T06:55:00.003-04:00

Today (01 June) marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Interestingly, there's already an area of interest off the Carolina coast - which is fitting since we've been sweltering here in the mid-Atlantic with August-like temperatures the past 4 days. NOAA, CSU, and the Cubans are all calling for an above-active year, so we'll see what pans out and where- if any -the landfalls occur.

Out of the plains and into the sauna

2011-05-30T11:04:00.002-04:00

After a highly successful SWIFT 2011, I'm back in Annapolis. Just in time for 75F dew point temperatures and heat indicies > 100F. Ugh! July and August will be bad enough once the Chesapeake surface temperatures exceed 80F; can we not escape late May / early June without the humidity?!

Almost 6 years, and now 500 posts!!

2011-05-30T10:57:00.002-04:00

This is post 500! What a wild ride it's been. It's amazing to think that I started this blog *before* I was on Facebook (and now I cross-post the entries to my FB wall), before I knew more than 10 words of Spanish, and before living in Barbados, Austria, and Chile and visiting dozens of other countries. While my posting frequency has declinded as other ways to communicate my thoughts have cropped up (and I admit I censor a little more now than before considering how broad my audience is), I look forward to seeing the next 6 years of posts! Thanks for reading and following as I've chronicled the past 20% of my life.

Looking rather blocky...

2011-05-05T06:43:00.003-04:00

So with SWIFT departing in 8 days, the students are starting to ask questions about the likelihood of severe storms. Thus I turn to the long-range GFS and ECMWF for answers. While we know the specifics of such 8-, 9-, and 10-day forecasts are likely to be poor, perhaps a pattern can be deduced, especially if there exists inter- and intra-model continuity. In this case, there does exist such continuity: both the ECMWF and GFS have been advertising a very blocky pattern in their long-range forecasts. The blocking pattern predicted, an omega block (named for the resemblance to an upside-down capital Greek letter omega in the mid/upper-troposphere height field), would be highly unfavorable for repeated convective storms. Fortunately we have several tours lined up in the first days (Kentucky Day 2, Norman Day 4); hopefully the blocky pattern (which is predicted to start next weekend, 13-14 May) will either not verify or break down quickly. We'll only wait and see.

Besides the long-range, in the medium-range, the models are unanimous in bringing a really good (and slow-moving) trough through the southern plains early next week, with attendant threat of a prolonged severe event.

Attached are long-range GFS and ECMWF 500-hPa predictions.

The new Super Outbreak?

2011-04-30T09:28:00.008-04:00

There has already been a lot written on the 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak. My objective here is to catalogue images that are available on many websites' short-term archives (but will disappear in the next few days). The numbers are very impressive: at least 340 killed, making it the 2nd deadliest US tornado outbreak ever behind only the 18 March 1925 Tri-state tornado outbreak with at least 747 fatalities, several violent tornadoes (EF4+, including a preliminary rating of EF5 in Smithville, MS), probably over 100 tornadoes total, and thousands of structures damaged or destroyed. The numbers will be updated as NWS continues its storm surveys and local emergency management continue their recovery operations. Some are speculating that the death toll might approach the Tri-state toll (although with 400 more fatalities needed, let's hope that's just speculation). Here are a selection of imagery:

Another few counties

2011-04-20T08:21:00.004-04:00

This is more to hyperlink the website (in case I forget it, it's saved here) than to update my map- although I did visit several more counties in central Pennsylvania! You can make your own map at http://counties.visitedmap.com. Congrats, Mike & Jen; I'll put up some pictures soon.

And what a gorgeous day it was!

2011-04-14T11:43:00.005-04:00

Today looks to be one of those days: full sunshine, temperatures in the mid-60s F, and severe weather to follow out in the plains! Spring is here, and life is good :)

26 years ago today - the Super Outbreak

2011-04-03T17:05:00.004-04:00

The tornado outbreak that inspired the Fujita Scale, millions of dollars in research, and lots of improvements in emergency management and public weather information dispersion.

A satellite loop, courtesy of Christopher Kaiser:

A summary of the outbreak, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Counties I've visited

2011-04-03T15:11:00.003-04:00

So courtesy of our friends over at Mob Rule, I created (from memory, so it's a rough approximation) a map of the counties I've visited over the years. You can certainly see some patterns: the interstate highway system (of which I've made heavy use in criss-crossing the country!), high density of counties in N. Carolina (where I grew up) and Oklahoma (where I lived 6 years and drove everywhere in pursuit of storms), and a few airports here & there (most notably Anchorage, AK). I'm thankful for the chance to see and know more about my country- but still note that the >1000 counties I've been in only constitutes about 30% of the total counties in the US. (Wow, don't know if I should be motivated to travel more, or discouraged by the task ahead!)

My counties visited:

What a wonderful world, or just what a world?

2011-03-28T20:46:00.002-04:00

So is it Louis Armstrong, or the Wicked Witch of the West? Tonight I was watching the O'Riley Factor and saw for the first time the tragic clip of Iman al Obeidi (alternate spelling Eman al-Obeidy), the Libyan woman who bust into the hotel in Tripoli to scream (in English, no less) to the pooled foreign reporters about being raped at a checkpoint by the Gadaffi military. What proceeded was equally tragic: her fellow Libyans turned on her, yelling at her, getting in her face (CNN says the response varied from brandishing a butter knife [one waitress], a pistol [a government "monitor"], and throwing a http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giftablecloth over her head [another hotel staff]). She was quickly pushed into a car and now evidently is in jail. The NY Times blog speculates that the hotel staff were actually government loyalist plants, "secret service"-type people charges with keeping news away from the rest of the world. Tragic, both her rape and her treatment after reporting the rape.

In other goings-on, I'm currently streaming Al Jazeera English online and hearing about financial crises in Europe- the euro zone, austerity, etc. President Obama explained in a news conference why our country is now in its third "intervention" (the new euphemism for war, I guess) in 10 years. That led me to wonder who's more correct in their perception of the world, Louis Armstrong or the Wicked Witch of the West?

The National Zoo!

2011-03-18T10:24:00.006-04:00

On President's Day, Jose, Factor, and Casimiro and I went to visit the National Zoo in Washington. Even though the sky threatened rain all morning (and actually did sprinkle some while we were walking to the zoo), the precip held off and we had a nice visit. The National Zoo is laid out pretty well- one main path, with animal exhibits/enclosures oriented in a "spoke" pattern off the main path. You basically walk either up (or down) hill (depending on which entrance you came in), and then walk to the other side. It was cold, but not as cold as our visit to the White House, National Mall and Smithsonian back on Martin Luther King Jr holiday. Here are a few photos (before my camera died... after suffering myriad camera deaths because of crappy [i.e., weak] AA batteries, I broke down and bought nice rechargeable batteries- the first set has lasted two weeks and taken dozens of flash pictures!)

Tsunamis and other thoughts

2011-03-18T09:49:00.002-04:00

Last Friday another huge earthquake (8.9, if you believe USGS, 9.0 if you want to go with JMA) hit around the Pacific "ring of fire". A little over a year ago an earthquake of similar power struck offshore of Chile. I thought it would be interesting to compare the predicted tsunami height/dispersion maps made by NOAA for each quake. The first image is from the Japan quake: high tsunami heights expected (and occurred) around Japan, with waves propagating radially outward toward the east and southeast. The second image is an eerie reverse of the first: high tsunami heights in southern Chile and waves propagating radially north and northwest. Also interesting is to note the fatalities: much (most?) of Japan's mortal casualties seemed to have died in the tsunami(s), but seems that most of Chile's casualties were from the earthquake itself (perhaps because the tsunami amplitude was far higher in Japan).

Hopefully the world will stop shaking for a little while (my good friends, the Reed family, had their home rocked by another >6.0 earthquake in Christchurch, NZ two weeks ago, their second in about 9 months!)

Comings and goings

2011-03-18T09:35:00.002-04:00

I wonder what power spectra would fall out if I ran a wavelet analysis on the frequency of my blog posting? Would it be completely random, have seasonality, or some other type of variability? Who knows!

I do know that I'm in Panama City Beach now with Crusade's Big Break 2011, sharing my faith with the many thousands of undergrads who've come here to party. It's been a great week & a great experience, and I've especially enjoyed getting to know the Navy midshipmen Cru folk better (we have over 50 students here!) I've also enjoyed daily runs on the beach in the morning, watching my hair get progressively lighter as the sun bleaches it, and hearing from the other student participants the things they are learning. What an encouraging week it's been!

Here are a few photos taken by the official photographer (he has opened his 'candid' shots to Flicker); my own photos will come when I get back to Annapolis and can actually connect my camera to a computer.

Enjoy the last of Spring Break; hopefully Congress will pass another Continuing Resolution and we'll have a job to come back to!

TSRA in Annapolis on 25 Feb!!

2011-02-25T13:00:00.002-05:00

Spring is up on us in Annapolis- 2 cloud-to-ground lightning strokes outside my windown in the past 2 minutes. Latest radar shows weak convection racing toward us (dBZ ~ 50, not too high)... of course, Tds are falling (now 48F, with a gusty WSW wind), so the instability isn't much, but enough to give us convection. We'll see what blows through in the next 15 mins.

Warmth!!

2011-02-14T09:09:00.002-05:00

Finally- spring is giving us a taste this week! After a winter mostly below normal, this week's temperatures promise to be at and above normal: today's predicted high is 62 (after a morning low near 49- can't beat that!), tomorrow's high should be 45 (to drop back only to normal after a cold front is nice), then back toward 60 by the middle & end of the week. Good times!

Ice hockey: what a novelty!

2011-02-05T17:04:00.003-05:00

Last night I went to my first ever ice hockey game, to watch Navy play Westchester Co. (from the Philly area). It was exciting (and cold inside, as expected I guess), as Navy won 4-3 in overtime. Here are 2 pics.

A lazy Saturday (the best!)

2011-02-05T16:08:00.002-05:00

This morning I woke up at 6:30 a.m. - wide awake - and decided to take advantage of the time to research brightness temperatures & Planck's law, essentially trying to see if it's possible to reconcile satellite obs at 10.8 um and 11 um (i.e., if I have 11 um and want to know what the Tb would be if it were sampled at 10.8 um instead, what's the methodology?) I got some good ideas (including someone's MS Thesis... not peer-reviewed, but very detailed on the basics!)

Then I went back to sleep, hahaha. We're socked in with drizzle and light rain all day, so no loss there. I did end up heading out for a run around 2 p.m., and found that downtown Annapolis was equally slow to fill with people. Before heading out, I watched a really unusual futbol (soccer) match between Newcastle & Arsenal- the Arsenal were up 4-0 (they scored all 4 goals in 25 mins), but then messed around, ended up getting a red card at the 50 min mark, and Newcastle scored 4 goals to tie it. For one team to score 4 goals in a professional match is unusual; to have both teams score 4, very unusual! Now I'm cooking lasagna, downloading Reanalysis SST data (at 750 mb per year, for 30 years, and 500kb/hr, it's a SLOW process), and just watched OU stink it up against OSU in basketball.

All in all it's been a lazy Saturday, exactly the kind that's the best!

Good news, and bad news

2011-01-28T19:33:00.002-05:00

First, the bad news: Anne Arundel County and Annapolis have decided to increase the 'assessed' value of my house by about $50,000 (evidently based on the purchase price I paid??) Anyway, that's causing my annual property taxes to go up almost $1200 (our rate is about 1.3 every 100 of value... quite high!). To compensate, and build my escrow account back up to minimum statutory levels, my monthly mortgage payment is going up nearly $200/month! Ouch.

Now the good news: I expect a hefty tax refund this year, partially owing to all these taxes I'm paying I guess. I know the adage is to not give the government an interest-free loan... but I'm reluctant to change my witholdings before establishing a baseline (and it takes at least a year to do that...) Anyway, with savings accounts earning a whopping %1/year, I'm not out too much.

Also, I heard back from the editor of Journal of Hydrometeorology- my first true USNA first-author paper has been accepted for publication (it was already accepted back in Dec., subject to major revisions... the revisions were accepted today, with only 3 small minor comments to address)!! I have two other paper ideas in the works with my current students; this is shaping up to be an exciting research semester.

Nearly 7" in 5 hours- that's not a bad little snow event

2011-01-27T09:38:00.003-05:00

I measured 6.5" last night about 9:45; other totals from around the area seem to match well: near the Target in Annapolis ("1 NNW Parole") measured 6.3", the BWI Airport had 7.6", near Crofton also had 6.5". The few totals that don't seem to match are those by the Severn River- my colleague at work measured 2.6" at the Academy, and a report from Eastport had only 3" at 9:30 last night. These weather systems will always be interesting and complex!

And the snows came down

2011-01-26T20:51:00.002-05:00

We're currently in the waning hours of what will probably turn out to be the heaviest snow event of 2010-2011. A compact upper-low closed off directly over the mid-Atlantic this afternoon, triggering a small but intense region of precipitation that arrived in Annapolis about 3:30 p.m., changed to snow about 5:30 p.m., and has been snowing heavily since. I haven't measured my snow board, but I expect we have 3-4" on the ground now.

In addition to the snows, we've been treated to a rarity: thundersnow! I was outside shoveling the driveway about 7:15 and saw/heard 3 different flashes/claps of thunder, and then later about 8:15 saw another flash through the window. The only other time I've been in TSSN (to my memory) was in Chapel Hill in late January 2000, riding around (joy riding?) with Adam Cline about 10 p.m. at night- the snow was pummeling down, and we ended up with 20" in ~ 18 hours.

Here's the current radar image: notice the banded nature of the precipitation... that region is moving east/northeast and should be through our area by 11 p.m. (in the interim, we could get 2" more snow).

Fun in the capital - MLK 2011!

2011-01-24T21:55:00.005-05:00

To celebrate MLK day 2011, Jose, Toshiba, Casimiro and I went to Washington! We really just walked around the White House, the Mall, and then the Smithsonian Natural History Museum. It was a great time- and for Jose and Toshiba, their first time going to DC (even though they've lived in Annapolis for 4 years!),. About the only complaint we had was that it was freezing! Still, we had fun :) Here are some pics.

So maybe some snow after all?

2011-01-24T21:36:00.002-05:00

I think it's unhealthy to follow weather events from 168 hours out- too much stress related to model variability, both intra- and inter-model differences! Nonetheless that's what I've been doing the past 72 hrs, ever since the hint of a snowstorm for the I-95/mid-Atlantic corridor started showing up in the models late last week. The upper-level trough position is really good: a digging trough that tilts negatively and pivots right over the southeast coastal plain, forcing a pretty deep surface low to bomb out just to our southeast. Unfortunately - for whatever reason - the well below-normal cold air we've had the past ... hmm ... 6 weeks is taking a vacation to Canada, leaving us with a thermal profile only supportive of rain at the onset of the precipitation. However, the past several model runs have hinted at the formation of a secondary area of precipitation, *behind* the mid-level low (I know... the forcing is strange...) However, my poor man's multi-model ensemble approach (just looking at ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and Canadian) says there's consensus for this 'secondary' precipitation region... and it might actually be accompanied by cold air!

Here's hoping: we still have 48 hrs to watch it, as it's predicted to occur at the end of the event (sometime late Wed night or Thu). Attached are the 48-hr and 54-hr 1000-500 hPa thickness (dashed contours) and 6hr precip (shadings, in inches) 00Z NAM predictions. I know HPC is discounting the NAM as being "too cold" in its thermal profile, but I'm not sure it's so prudent to completely ignore multiple instances of the same prediction across model initiations (that's called 'consensus'... it may be wrong, but it is at least consistent).

What a warmup (and a bummer!)

2011-01-24T09:23:00.003-05:00

The models are still in pretty good agreement for a snowstorm mid-week ... just not for us. In fact it's as if the HPC duty forecaster went out of his (her) way to NOT include Annapolis in the Day 3 snowfall probability graphic last night! It'll still be interesting to see how quickly this cold air that's been entrenched here (even the Severn River was ice-covered this morning!) erodes and yields to the warm, moist air coming in off the Atlantic. If it yields as expected, a 37-degree rain is in the offing for Wednesday.

So a snowstorm is in the forecast, but not from any of the US models

2011-01-22T18:02:00.002-05:00

Today was an interesting day to follow NOAA's HPC products & forecasts (prepared by people) and compare them against NCEP's NAM/GFS models. If you only looked at the models, you'd think "man, looks like another near-miss for us in terms of snow"; if you only looked at HPC's products, you'd think "wow someone is in for a heavy snow event". -- see the two images below: first from GFS, second from HPC.

Reconciling the two (they're just down the street in Silver Spring, MD!) requires going abroad: to the Canadian met office model (CMC), the United Kingdom Met Office model (UKMET), and the European Centre model (ECMWF)- all 3 of which are forecasting heavy precipitation all along the US East Coast, from Virginia northward to Maine. The problem for Annapolis area is the thermal profile- the consensus in the models (the ones that actually forecast heavy precip for us) is that we'll be above freezing somewhere in the troposphere during much of the precipitation. Hopefully the model predictions are underestimating the contribution from 'dynamic cooling' (as strong upward vertical motion cools the air column as parcels rise)- and maybe we get more snow than less.

Regardless as we head toward Tue/Wed, this remains an interesting event to follow: watching which model camp turns out to have best-predicted the event (American or Int'l), and then if the Int'l suite is right, how much precipitation do we get (1.5" liquid-equivalent, according to HPC?) and in what form will it fall?

Finally something to be excited about!

2011-01-21T11:25:00.006-05:00

So this winter we've been teased and tossed around by half a dozen winter lows here in the mid-Atlantic... it looks like we finally have something to be excited about! With each iteration of the other lows/upper-troughs, we were always one ingredient short (too warm, too little precip, etc.)... the 00Z, 06Z, and now 12Z GFS solutions have all been hinting at a coastal low with enough cold air and precipitation to give a healthy snow event for us here.

Of course with over 120 hours to go before the event really gets going, there is plenty of time for one (or all!) of the needed variables to change, not in our favor. But at this point there's at least some reason to be excited. We'll see how things turn out. Below are HPC Day 6 SLP prediction (Img 1), 108 and 120 hr GFS SLP predictions (Imgs 2 & 3), and the 60hr GFS accumulated precipitation ending 132hrs (Img 4). If all of that precip fell as snow, we'd have over a foot! (Note, however, the very tight gradient between heavy precip and nothing... a swing of only 100 nm could wipe out our chances of snow... and a 100 nm error at 120 hrs is nothing...) Still, I'll be following it over the next few days (of course).

A relative heat wave!

2011-01-19T09:09:00.003-05:00

Since getting back from Chile on 8 Jan, our area has been locked in a below-normal temperature pattern... that is, until today! The morning temperature (and dew point temperature, too) were above freezing- making it feel quite balmy. Today's predicted high of 43 would be the first above-normal high since 4 Jan (although we did have one "normal" high day on 15 Jan). Woohoo! Of course, the forecast calls for snow again by Thu night... so I'm headed out for a nice jog to take advantage of the warmer temps.

A bit of ice before daybreak

2011-01-17T20:33:00.003-05:00

**04Z (11 p.m. EST) Update**
NWS-LWX upgraded the counties to our NW to a winter storm warning for ice/snow accumulations - specifically ice/sleet of 0.2"-0.3", enough to give some trouble. Precip has been coming down steadily as a -FZRA -PL mixture for the past two hours; my car has a good coating of ice on it (well, it had - I went out and scraped it off).

**continue original post below**

We finally get a coastal low moving close enough to us to give us precip, but the atmosphere will be too warm for snow. Instead we're getting a mixture of ZR/IP now, to be followed by a quick changeover to rain early Tue morning. We'll see how quickly the changeover occurs; I'm personally surprised by the intensity of precipitation, as by 01Z the radar was quickly filling in with 20-25 dBZ echoes.

Goings on...

2011-01-15T11:54:00.002-05:00

My blog posting has become more and more irregular, even though, for those who've been following along/counting, I've been blogging for FIVE YEARS and 5 months... that's a long time in the world of the internet. It's weird to think that 17.2% of my life is recorded in the period of this blog (64.5 months of blogging, 375 months of living).

Anyway, a few goings-on in my world:

1- I had a great mid-year job evaluation from my boss. Those are always encouraging to hear, and motivating to keep up the good work.

2- I just got back from a 10-day trip to Chile with USNA students (we returned a week ago). The trip was fantastic, and I'll post a blog entry in the not-too-distant future (I still owe one from Mexico this summer!, and probably several others, too.)

3- The next trip on the horizon is the Air Quality conference in San Diego in March, and I plan to take one of my research students with me to that. Speaking of cool conferences, the 2012 AMS Southern Hemisphere meeting is in New Caledonia, an island in the South Pacific. I'd love to go (of course!), and hopefully one of my current proposals in with ONR or NSF will be funded, enabling me to attend.

4- Life here in Annapolis is going well- I've lined up (I think) a research student for the summer, which is great because I know him and think we'll enjoy working together, and a research student significantly increases my own productivity.

5- My colleague John Woods and I are again trying to put together SWIFT activity for May 2011; stay tuned for details.

6- For the first time in a while, I'm not sure what I'll be doing during Spring Break this year. The past two years, I'd spent the break in Norway and Venezuela. Perhaps this year it's time to take it easy, maybe save the money toward either my kitchen renovations or possibly buying a property in eastern Colorado (a perfect place to spend the sultry, oppressive Annapolis summer: as far away from water as possible!) We'll see...

Stay tuned for the Chile post... I promise it's coming soon!

Finally!

2011-01-15T11:39:00.004-05:00

Considering how much we like college football and cheering for our teams, the past 10 years or so, the Barrett extended family has participated in a bowl pick-em contest (similar to a bracket for March Madness)- and just so everything's clear, we started our annual contest at least 5 years before ESPN and other sports groups marketed their own pick-em contests. Rebecca and I set it up each year, and each year I start off with hopes of my picks doing well, only to watch them falter at the end. Until this year, where I was steadily in the middle-back of the family until New Year's Eve, then a string of good picks (coupled with some fortuitously bad picks from my competition!) catapulted me in front, where I hung on the last week of the season. Here are screen grabs of my picks and the final results. I edged out my mom by only 2 points!

A North Carolina Christmas: family, food, presents, and ... snow?!

2011-01-15T10:51:00.010-05:00

I gave away my Kohl's sweaters to the guys in Annapolis Tue night and then headed down to NC Wednesday afternoon. It seems that no matter how I try to time the traffic, I always get stuck in a bottleneck south of DC, north of and around Fredericksburg. Why anyone would want to live in that exurb of DC and waste 20% (2-3 hrs) of their day in traffic is beyond me...the quality of life in Dale City cannot be worth it! Heck, I get upset when my bike ride takes 12 mins instead of 9 (the 2 stoplights - on Rowe and King George St - really make a difference, haha!)

Anyway, I rolled into Greenville in time to visit with Charles, Kim, Bill, Bret, and Mike and Kendra (who were all in town for funeral visitation for Adam Wall). Thursday I rode up to Cary with Dad to visit with him and Gran and hear from her financial planner. Friday, Christmas Eve, I visited my friend Amanda Wooten, visited with Aunt Carrie Dail and Uncle S.A., and helped mom cook, wrap a mountain of presents, and played with the dogs and Rhett. Friday afternoon, we went to St. James' church service, where I ran into several old Greenville friends, and then enjoyed the evening visiting with family. Saturday, Christmas day itself, was relaxing, although we started the day early - as is our tradition - because Dad goes into work around 8 a.m. (so we opened presents early). Saturday evening, several of the Browns came over for dinner (delicious turkey, ham, collards, stuffing, sweet potatoes, jello, beans, corn, a couple of pies... mmmm), and because of the forecast of 6-8" of snow, and the thought that Mike would have to work Sunday during the day, I volunteered to ride back to Clayton with them Sat. night and help drive Kendra and Rhett to Cary the next day for Barrett Christmas.

Mike's work ended up being cancelled, so we all drove to Cary together in the 4-Runner - a good thing because the roads (especially the back roads near Mike & Kendra's house) were pretty deep with snow. Barrett Christmas was fun, although Mom didn't make it from Greenville (snowed in). Mom and I visited some Sunday night and Monday morning, and then I loaded up on food (I mean loaded!! Still have 1/2 of it uneaten in my freezer now) and headed back to Annapolis Monday night to get ready for a Thursday midday departure for Chile.

Here are some pictures:

So we got some snow after all!

2010-12-26T10:02:00.002-05:00

After swinging wildly from model run to model run, alternating between 8" and 0" snow totals, looks like central and eastern NC got some snow after all this Dec. 26th. Just got in from outside playing with Maverick, Lambeau, Mike, Rhett, and Kendra- their backyard is a powder wonderland! Based on latest radar trends and upper-air analysis, looks like the heavy(ier) snow will be ending here within the hour. I measured 6" at 9 a.m.; the Raleigh NWS office shows similar totals all over the place. We should be piling into the 4Runner in a 15-20 mins and heading to Cary to visit with the other Barretts (those who could make it).

Enjoy the snow, all. Will post some pictures soon!

So just what is a white Christmas, anyway?

2010-12-24T16:44:00.003-05:00

According to Wikipedia, a white Christmas "refers to a Christmas morning or Christmas Eve with snow on the ground." Others talk about snow actually falling on Christmas day. I'm pretty indifferent- either falling snow, or snow on the ground- both would count in my book! Since I'll be in Greenville on both Christmas Eve and Christmas day, this forecast will be KPGV-centric. Those who've been following me on FB and here have noticed a lot of back and forth with this snow forecast. Five days ago, the computer models were hinting at a major snowstorm for the entire east coast from SC north to Maine. Then about 3 days ago, the models started a 2-day trend of backing off the snow (both in warmer temps & less moisture) for all areas except down-east Maine. Then today the models have reversed again, predicting more snow both in accumulation and extent (snow as far west as Greensboro, NC).

We're about 30 hours out from the onset of precipitation- what can we expect? Based on a poor man's model consensus, I think the NWS forecast of 2-4" for Greenville is pretty accurate. The latest 18Z NAM forecast paints a much "wetter" picture for places west toward Raleigh... i.e., if it verified perfectly, Cary (where the Barretts will congregate on Sunday) would get 5" ending Sunday morning.

So here are the unknowns: atmospheric thermal structure (which usually has a margin of +/- 2 degrees F, not a problem unless you're talking about 30F vs 34F, which makes a big difference in terms of accumulating snows!) and moisture content (0.5" QPF vs 0.05" QPF, a pretty big difference that would give a range of 0.5"-5" of snow).

I'm going with the NWS here (always a good bet! www.weather.gov) and their 2-4" totals ending sunset Sunday. HPC has the area tasked in a low (10%) risk of 4" in the 24-hr period ending 7 pm Sunday (seems reasonable to me). See the attached graphics. In the images below, the shaded colors are 6-hr liquid-equivalent precipitation totals - so using a standard 10:1 snow:liquid ratio, 0.5" QPF = 5.0" snow. The dashed lines are thicknesses, and the general rule of thumb is that the "540 line" (the first blue dashed line) represents the rain-snow changeover boundary. The final graphic is the HPC snow probability.

Merry Christmas! Here are a few other pics from Christmas Eve: me with my great-aunt and great-uncle, Barretts at St. James Church for the Christmas Eve service, and me with my friends Sara Davis and Amanda Wooten.

Only cold... but a lot of it

2010-12-20T08:38:00.004-05:00

This past weekend saw the continuation of the pattern that we've been locked in to for the entire month of December: cold and dry. Except for one quick warmup ahead of a cold front around 10 Dec, we've been below normal for every day of the month but two (01 Dec was also above normal, just before the deep freeze set in!) I guess I'm thankful that the below-normal temps are coming in Dec., leaving room for Jan & Feb to be back to normal (or even warmer!???)- below normal now means lows between 23-38F and highs 35-40F (instead of 18-23F and 30-35F, which we could have next month). Hopefully the pattern changes as we start 2011- a little warmer, and maybe some more snow!

So maybe it will after all?

2010-12-16T23:34:00.002-05:00

The past week I've been following the potential for snow here in the mid-Atlantic for this upcoming weekend. The numerical guidance has been very interesting, mostly for its remarkable *lack* of agreement. Even now, 72 hrs out, you'd think that the general synoptic details would be clear -- i.e., where the sfc low will track, how amplified (phased) the 500 hPa trough will be, etc. I find it amusing that NCEP's HPC has discounted its own two high-quality NWP models (NAM & GFS) and instead gone for an ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solution blend. For example, HPC predicts ~ 0.5" liquid-equivalent for Annapolis 00Z Sun-00Z Mon. Only tonight, for the first time, does the GFS start to hint at precip here (and even still QPF totals are 0.1-0.2" for the time period).

As I said earlier, it'll be interesting to watch what unfolds. This is what makes weather (its predictability) fun to follow!

First img: GFS QPF; Second img: HPC QPF

Looks like it wont...

2010-12-15T17:16:00.002-05:00

After yesterday's post about possible accumulating snows this weekend in Annapolis, I've been underimpressed by the next sequence of model runs. Seems all solutions are now converging on a non-snow event for us... maybe still some snow for eastern New England as the surface low deepens and moves northward, but looks dry, windy, and cold for us. We'll see how it turns out.

So will it, or won't it?

2010-12-14T12:07:00.003-05:00

For the past 4 days I've been entertained (and alternately dismayed) by the weather forecast for this weekend here. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF have been all over the place with their solutions as they attempt to predict where, how intense, and how "wet" the surface low will be as it heads from the Gulf coast. Obviously the favorable (for us, anyway!) solutions are for it to be very intense, very wet, and to take a northeast track hugging the coast. Of course it's dangerous to "cherry pick" one model solution and get excited about it, but that's what I'm doing here in this post (lol): this morning's 12Z GFS has a very deep, very wet, and very close low- prime position for a snow event in Annapolis. If this forecast were to verify perfectly, we'd have ~ 12" of snow here on Sunday. I'll be watching it intently, as always :)

Tick, tock...

2010-12-11T18:27:00.002-05:00

... so today I ordered most of my Christmas gifts for small group from Kohl's, not really realizing that the items would be shipped here. The status update says the "item should arrive by Dec. 24". In 13 days? Surely Kohl's warehouse can move faster than that! Oh well, hopefully the gifts will arrive before I head to Greenville for Christmas....?

Was I born a travelin' man?

2010-12-11T10:52:00.002-05:00

If 2010 is any evidence, maybe I was born a travelin' man (I know the song is "ramblin' man"... but "travelin'" fits!) A quick run down for those who weren't following so closely:

Jan- Nicaragua
Mar- Caracus
Apr- Greenville (Easter)
May- SWIFT: 6800 miles through 16 states
Jun- NC for the Smoak wedding
Jul- Guadalajara / Colima
Aug- Beach & Tahoe
Sep- Greenville (cookout)
Oct- Retreat in W. Maryland & LBB
Nov- Madrid & Lisbon
Dec- Greenville & Chile

Whew, it's no wonder some days I'm just happy to stay home on the weekend! In total, I visited 20 states & 7 countries this year (counting Chile, which I plan to visit on 31 Dec)! Thanks to all who accompanied / accommodated me on one or more of these trips. Here's to 2011- whatever it may bring!

Lots going on: proposals, papers, and travel, oh my!

2010-12-03T21:25:00.002-05:00

So after getting back from Spain & Portugal (I'll put up a blog post on here soon, don't worry!) last week, I had a very productive work week this week. I heard back from my paper submission to Journal of Hydrometeorology: accept pending revisions. The revisions look constructive & not too hard to tackle, which is great! I've also nearly gotten my ONR grant proposal finished, just waiting on a few institutional letters & tidying up the language. I'm also moving ahead with Chile trip plans; we're less than 4 weeks out from heading down on a Faculty-led cultural trip (am excited for sure!). Before heading to Santiago, though, I'll be spending a few days in Greenville & Cary for Christmas with family. I also heard that my research students are having a stellar semester: one was selected as a Rhodes Scholar, the other to replace her as Brigade Commander (equivalent position to Student Body president, but not a "popularity contest" like in other universities...) I hope to take him (the Brigade Commander-select) to an air quality conference in San Diego in March (pending funding availability), and I'm outlining a paper with him for his work. I also have another paper already outlined, and last week I lined up a great Chilean collaborator to work with me on interpreting the data. Finally, I'm working with my coauthor to finish up our J. Geoscience Education paper (need to "needle" him to get on it!), and have a J. College Science Teaching paper nearly ready to be submitted.

So these next 6 months are shaping up to be very active! For those keeping count:

- J. Hydromet paper (accepted)
- J. Geosc. Edu. paper (accepted)
- J. Coll. Sci. Edu. paper (in preparation, nearly ready for submission)
- J. Clim. paper (outlined; collaborator identified & eager to help)
- J. xxxx paper (not sure what journal, but the idea is clear, and could be a major contribution)
- ONR grant proposal (almost ready for submission)
- Chile trip with 4 students
- San Diego air quality conference (presenting w/ a student)

I think the only downside is that I haven't been able to put as much into teaching recently- which is ironic because the teaching is why this job was so attractive to me in the first place! Nonetheless I'm excited about all these opportunities! I am not so full of hubris as to think I'm a shoe-in, but if all these "irons in the fire" come to fruition, I don't think I'll need to sweat the tenure process when it comes up in a few years.

Stay tuned!!

Brrrrr.... and statistically cold, too!

2010-12-03T16:25:00.002-05:00

Today's IAD sounding was very cold: except for a small blip just above the surface, the entire troposphere (and much of the stratosphere) was below freezing. The 500 mb temperature was -30C, which caught my eye: this early in the year (03 December), already -30C? How unusual is that? So I went looking in the sounding archive (IRGA), which fortunately for me I've been having one of my research students examine the data- so FORTRAN scripts were already written to quickly extract the data. The resulting histogram (see below) confirmed my suspicion: -30C *is* below average. Specifically, only 3.96% of all the November & December 500 mb temperature observations in the past 50 years at IAD had been colder than -30C. So we really are cold! Fortunately the ground (and nearby bodies of water) is still relatively warm- so our low this morning at the surface was still about 0C (and the high about 5C). If this same setup had occurred in late January, we would be COLD indeed, all the way to the surface. Now to hop on my bike and brave this statistically unusual chill.

5th busiest 6 months since 1930...

2010-12-01T20:23:00.004-05:00

Back in mid-summer I posted about the 2010 North Atlantic Hurricane Season and how active it was to that point. The activity continued, and we ended up with 19 named storms, the 2nd most since 1933 (the most was in 2005). The storms were not incredibly intense (although Igor did reach 925 hPa, a strong Category 4 storm), and perhaps even more remarkable, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, continuing a trend since Ike in 2008 (now over 2 years with no hurricane landfalls). The 2010 season still caused quite a bit of damage in the Caribbean, Mexico, and even Newfoundland!

(picture courtesy of Wikipedia)

It is worth noting that as of today, 01 December 2010, the global total number of tropical cyclones is at a near-record low-- a point all the more interesting because the Atlantic basin is at a near-record high in numbers of TCs. We have seen ~67 (65 if you use only the TCWC numbers) TCs in calendar-year 2010, with only one month to go. This would be the lowest # of TCs in at least 30 years.

Navy, by one!

2010-11-17T09:30:00.003-05:00

Last Saturday, Baltazar, Cecilio, Ivan, and Edgar joined me for the Navy-Central Michigan game. Even though they've lived in Annapolis for over 5 years, it was the first Navy event they'd ever been to. The day started out nice and sunny, perfect for football. It ended up clear, cool, and a little breezy, but still great football weather. Navy ended up winning by 1 point as Central Michigan opted to go for 2 with 4 seconds left in the game - and Navy stopped them. It was a great game and I think my 4 friends enjoyed the atmosphere and the experience of "American football" as much as anything. Here are some pics:

Lots going on...

2010-11-07T18:35:00.005-05:00

I haven't posted in over 3 weeks, which is one of the longest posting droughts in this 5-year experiment that has turned into a blog.

Here's what's up:

1- I'm going to Madrid (SPAIN) and Lisbon (PORTUGAL) for Thanksgiving!! And I'm thoroughly excited! Madrid is the epicenter of the hispanic culture I've been immersed in for the past 3 years, and it is also the source of the language I've been acquiring (and - dare I say so? - trying to master). So I am looking forward to strolling through the streets, hearing a familiar language (hopefully the Castillian accent will not be too difficult to decipher), and viewing where it all started: the Museo Prado, Palacio Real, Puerta del Sol, etc. Lisbon holds a special fascination for me, too, because of the 3 semesters I spent studying Portuguese at UNC. I know I will remember zero words (my Angolan friends at OU taught me that lesson 4 yrs ago!), but nevertheless I'm excited to (finally) explore the capital of a country that has had my attention for over 11 years.

2. Baltazar's 25th birthday. Baltazar has been one of my closest friends in Annapolis (even though we don't actually spend all that much time together), and he invited me to join his family at the TGI Friday's restaurant in town to celebrate his 25th birthday. It was a great evening of jokes, laughter, and good food. Hard to believe an entire year has passed since we did the same thing in 2009! Feliz cumple, amigo, que tengas muchos mas a venir!

3. I'm headed back to Chile to spend New Year and the first week of January :-) This trip was rescheduled back in March of last year owing to the huge earthquake in the south, and I'm excited for 4 students to learn a little of a country that I still have great affection for. We plan to spend New Year in Santiago and then head toward the north to see the Atacama, returning via Valparaiso to visit la Escuela Naval and then to Santiago again to visit Departamento de Geofisica and give a seminar before flying home. Should be a great trip.

Two powerful warm-core cyclones 10,000 km apart

2010-10-17T21:49:00.004-04:00

This afternoon we had the treat of having two warm-core cyclones with (estimated) sea level pressures less than 915 hPa: Supertyphoon Juan/Megi (15W... different names from Philippines & JTWC), which saw a research aircraft dropsonde SLP of 893 mb and max winds of ~165 kts, and a polar low approaching the Drake Passage, which was analyzed by the 18Z GFS to have SLP of ~912 hPa. (On a side note, anyone know how the GFS gets this analysis? I can understanding the routine analyses of 1000 mb, heck even the rarer 970 mb low... but a 912 mb low? Is there a +/- involved... perhaps as much as 15 mb? Just thinking...)

Here are a few images.

Images from Fall

2010-10-17T19:55:00.005-04:00

Fall is here (finally!). We had a good deluge to end September (over 9" of rain in about 27 hours!), and now the nights are cool and the days sunny and warm. Excellent fall weather! I went to the first half of the Navy-SMU game yesterday (Navy came back from a 14-0 deficit to win 28-21), and today walked around my neighborhood taking pictures of the scenery. The trees here are starting to color up, and that makes me smile!

Here are some pics.

31 - not easy to say in Spanish

2010-10-17T19:46:00.005-04:00

Last month I celebrated my 31st birthday! I had about 20 friends from church & small group over for a celebration cookout. I've discovered that for whatever reason, numbers that end in "one" are hard for me to say in Spanish... do you say "Tengo..." "treinta un", "treinta uno", "treinta y un", or "treinta y uno" ... "años"? The trouble with this number is that "uno" is one, but my age is plural... and the adjective "a" (as in "a tree"... "un arbol"), is "un" and it's very similar to "uno". Hopefully I'll figure it out by September 2011!

Here are some pictures from last month.