The
SPC has issued its first "high risk" of severe thunderstorms today, in response to a strong mid/upper-level trough moving out of the Rockies and interacting with a very warm and moist (relative to climatology) airmass over the lower Mississippi river valley.
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In my opinion, SPC has gotten better (or at least more proactive) in issuing their "high" risks (used when tornado probabilites exceed 30% over a large area and/or damaging wind probabilities exceed 60%). Usually they issue 3-4 of these categories each year: 1-2 in the southeast/midwest, and 1-2 in the plains. It seems pretty clear to me why the forecasters were concerned about thunderstorms, but again we have (relatively) little skill in predicting/discriminating between
tornado outbreaks and general severe outbreaks. The mid-upper level kinematics (wind fields) are impressive, with 50+ kt swrly jet streaks at both 700 hPa and 850 hPa overspreading AR/TN/LA/MS by 00Z UTC.
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The lowest-level winds are weaker (10-15 kts), but the combined directional and speed shears are very large.
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So, it remains to be seen how this event unfolds (and if the larger-scale precip [snows north of the sfc low; aforementioned warm-sector storms] interferes in any way with "Súper Martes", as it's been christened here in the Santiago newspapers!)
1 Comments:
lots of pretty colors on your graphs... i'm afraid that's all it means to me ;)
ps. i spelled seepage wrong on purpose.
pps. still haven't seen you on skype
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