Desierto norte de Chile

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

First "high risk" of 2008

The SPC has issued its first "high risk" of severe thunderstorms today, in response to a strong mid/upper-level trough moving out of the Rockies and interacting with a very warm and moist (relative to climatology) airmass over the lower Mississippi river valley. In my opinion, SPC has gotten better (or at least more proactive) in issuing their "high" risks (used when tornado probabilites exceed 30% over a large area and/or damaging wind probabilities exceed 60%). Usually they issue 3-4 of these categories each year: 1-2 in the southeast/midwest, and 1-2 in the plains. It seems pretty clear to me why the forecasters were concerned about thunderstorms, but again we have (relatively) little skill in predicting/discriminating between tornado outbreaks and general severe outbreaks. The mid-upper level kinematics (wind fields) are impressive, with 50+ kt swrly jet streaks at both 700 hPa and 850 hPa overspreading AR/TN/LA/MS by 00Z UTC.
The lowest-level winds are weaker (10-15 kts), but the combined directional and speed shears are very large. So, it remains to be seen how this event unfolds (and if the larger-scale precip [snows north of the sfc low; aforementioned warm-sector storms] interferes in any way with "Súper Martes", as it's been christened here in the Santiago newspapers!)

1 Comments:

At 5:47 AM, February 09, 2008, Blogger Zach Barnes said...

lots of pretty colors on your graphs... i'm afraid that's all it means to me ;)

ps. i spelled seepage wrong on purpose.

pps. still haven't seen you on skype

 

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