Round 4 - seriously?

So, again snow - moderate to heavy - is falling in Annapolis. The forecast models have been in much less agreement this time around, compared to Rounds 1 and 3, on precip amounts - but have generally agreed on at least 0.75" of liquid-equivalent precipitation between now and tomorrow evening. The lightest model is about 0.6" for the Annapolis area; the heaviest model is predicting nearly 1.5" liquid-equivalent. The current radar image is scary, and shows a band of very heavy precipitation - perhaps sleet/snow mixture? bright-banding? - on the doorstep of Annapolis. The local NWS has predicted 10-20" of snow by tomorrow. We'll see what we end up with; my snow board is again out in the side yard, awaiting whatever comes.

What a winter!!

We're 3 days out from Round 3 of heavy snow this winter. I measured 21.5" in my yard; other measurements closer to Baltimore came in close to, or even above, 30". Amazing. Here's a visible satellite image of the snow. Note the sharp edges, both north and south, with the KNAK area well-centered in the heaviest axis.

Round 3: heavy snow in Annapolis

3:15 p.m. radar image shows the event looks to *finally* be winding down. After 21.5", it should be!!



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As of 3:00 p.m.
1.7" New snow since 12 noon
19.8" Old snow 12:00 noon Friday - 9:00 a.m. Saturday
----
21.5" Total storm accumulation at 3:00 p.m.

Averted a near-disaster: the first person I've seen out in my development was a 20-something girl headed toward the stadium / downtown Annapolis (on foot). She was making her way gingerly toward the side street, but happened to be making a direct bee-line for my snow measuring location (yardstick still sticking unceremoniously out of the ground, along with a convenient 2-foot tall twig I snagged yesterday to help mark the location). I was heading out to take the 3 p.m. measurement and called out to her, no doubt startling her ... and confusing her: "why would anyone not want me to walk over there?" ... "I haven't talked to this guy in several months of him living here; now he's yelling at me to not walk somewhere?" Anyway, near-disaster averted as she changed course and didn't disturb my snow measuring spot. Why is the spot so critical? Well, for continuity's sake, one, but also I have two snow boards laid out, one at the bottom of the pile and one I cleared last night around 11 p.m. and put down on top of what was then the snow depth... now it's buried again somewhere in the middle of the snow (specifically, it has 13" on it, the old one has 19", and compaction allows me to say that 21.5" actually fell). We'll see if the NWS includes my snowfall total - the two recent PNS lists haven't included my latest measurement. I'm sure it's because they're getting a tremendous number of reports.

Here are some recent photos:

*The sidewalk shortly before 1 p.m.:
The sidewalk shortly before 3 p.m. (notice the snow has filled back in!):








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As of 12:00 noon
2.2" New snow since 9:00 a.m.
17.6" Old snow 12:00 noon Friday - 9:00 a.m. Saturday
----
19.8" Total storm accumulation at 12:00 noon

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**Baltimore all-time seasonal snowfall record appears ready to fall**

As of 10:27 a.m., BWI Airport measured 23.9", which brings the unofficial seasonal snowfall total for 2009-2010 winter is 59.5". This is the 2nd largest seasonal total ever since 1883 (records for the early part were taken in Baltimore proper). The all-time record set in 1995-96 is 62.5" for the season. This record appears in jeopardy today, depending on how fast the current bands move eastward. Stay tuned.

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As of 9:00 a.m.:
1.1" New snow since 6:00 a.m.
16.5" Old snow 12:00 noon Friday - 6:00 a.m. Saturday
----
17.6" Total storm accumulation at 9:00 a.m.

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8:00 a.m. update:

I took a quick walk around the neighborhood this morning at first light, and again what an amazing sight it was! Everything covered in snow; the "snow emergency" streets with at least 4" of snow on them, and that's packed down after multiple plowings. The only armada of backhoes and snow plows that I saw hard at work were clearing a *parking lot* (for the Maryland state government offices... gotta get the bureaucrats back to work a.s.a.p. ... seriously, what does the Department of Natural Resources actually do besides create regulatory headaches?? They have a huge office complex, 5 stories tall and about a city block long... not to mention a caravan of over 30 state vehicles and 10 state boats! Said boats can be found attached to said vehicles parked in said parking lot, doing lots of regulating. But I digress....) I also came across a road-closed barricade placed in the middle of Cedar Park Rd; it had blown over but the mound of ice plowed up in front of it was a reasonable signal: road closed. Considering that Cedar Park is a snow emergency route (that should be plowed and open), I walked farther along to investigate. Sure enough, about 100 meters down the road, I came upon a "nearly" downed power line - it was sagging across the road at about my head level, making it hazardous to oncoming traffic. It was actually attached to the Iglesia Emanuel (where I attend), but their power looked to still be on.

After exploring around for a while, I made my way back home to start digging out my car. I managed to dig a footpath around the vehicle, but I have no idea how I might actually get out of the parking lot, considering there's a "wall" (maybe "sea" of snow 12" deep would be a better description... it only looks like a wall when you see it next to the part I shoveled clear) of snow at least 12" high just behind my Civic that covers the entire parking lot and extends well into the street.

It'll be interesting to see how the city responds. Good thing for all of us, this storm hit Fri night and will be over by early Sat afternoon, giving 36 hrs to plow and clear the roads & parking lots for Monday's commute.

Here are some pics:























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As of 6:00 a.m.:
8.0" New snow since 11:00 p.m.
8.5" Old snow 12:00 noon - 11:00 p.m.
----
16.5" Total storm accumulation at 6:00 a.m.





The southern edge of the heaviest snow is sitting right at Annapolis, although recent radar trends have indicated some building of the snowband to our north. To get to 20" for this event, will need 3.5" more, something I'm pretty doubtful can happen looking at current radar trends. Models were consistent, however, in predicting 0.25-0.35 QPF after 12Z today, so again it remains to be seen. The 06Z IAD sounding shows very strong warm air advection and a saturated column up to 600 mb. Note all the little inversions; I'm not an expert enough to explain their causes. Finally our winds are starting to back around to more northerly, indicating the surface low (which is just east of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, east of ORF) is moving NE.





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As of 11:00 p.m.:
3.0" New snow since 9:00 p.m. (3" in 2 hrs)
5.5" Old snow 12:00 noon - 6:00 p.m.
----
8.5" Total storm accumulation at 11:00 p.m.

I'm off to bed but will try to wake at 3 a.m. to take another observation. At this rate, to get to 20"+, we'll need another 11.5", which is only possible if we avg 1.5"/hr for the next 8 hrs. I'm discounting whatever falls after 12Z as negligble, although a few more inches could fall during the day tomorrow. We'll see.

One final note: the winds really have picked up, gusting to 25KT in a recent ASOS report. The visibility part of a NWS-defined blizzard has been met for many hours now; just need the winds to pick up a little more to meet the criteria.

KNAK 060340Z AUTO 06013G25KT 1/4SM +SN FG FEW002 OVC010 00/M02 A2979 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0010 TSNO

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Here comes the RA/SN line: down at the mouth of the Potomac River, at Patuxent River Naval Air Station, moderate snow ended 25 mins ago (at 9:50 p.m.) and moderate rain began. This heavy band will move northward toward us in the next hour, and we'll see if we change over to anything besides snow. If we do changeover, the snow totals will dramatically decrease.

KNHK 060252Z 05020G28KT 4SM RA BR BKN003 OVC008 01/M01 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 05028/0248 RAB50SNE50 PRESFR SLP077 P0008 60019 T00061011 58068 $

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Just watched streaming video on Fox5 from Washington when the "film crew" - live, on the air - pulled up beside Senator Daschle, D-SD, who had spun out on Wisconsin Ave. in DC. They jumped out and gave him a push, and off he was. Hehe. What a snowstorm!

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As of 9:00 p.m.:
2.8" New snow since 6:00 p.m.
2.7" Old snow 12:00 noon - 6:00 p.m.
----
5.5" Total storm accumulation

The local Fox channel is trying to figure out if the "blue flashes" they're seeing in Arlington, VA and College Park, MD are due to power flashes (transformers) or thunder snow. The heavy band has really hit Dulles Int'l hard; last hour, they had a total of 9", and the heavy snow band still is sitting overhead. I've included the current radar image below.

Also, NWS has upgraded Anne Arundel County to a Blizzard Warning for 35+ mph winds and < 1/4 nm visibliity for 3+ hours. We'll see if we verify; the latest ob from the weather station out on Hospital Point (inside the campus of USNA) was:

KNAK 060154Z AUTO 07010KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC010 00/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0009 T00001017 TSNO











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I'll try to live-blog this event like the 19 December 2009 event (where I measured 22" in my yard).

As of 6:00 p.m.:
2.7" New snow
2.7" Total storm accumulation

Here are a few photos I snapped around 5:15 p.m.

Comparing the last pre-event model runs: NAM 00Z 19 Dec 2009 vs NAM 12Z 05 Feb 2010

The last pre-event model run is in, and the snow looks to be intense: over 2.5" QPF, which would translate to 25" using a 10-1 ratio. I thought it'd be interesting to compare this morning's last pre-event forecast with the last pre-event model run from the 19 December 2009 storm. Both NAM forecasts show over 2.5" liquid-equivalent QPF for a bulls-eye centered on the northern Chesapeake. Interestingly, the NWS and associated agencies were discounting the NAM back in December as being "too wet" (the GFS was their model of choice, with its much more 'reasonable' QPF of 1.5") This time around, the NWS is not discounting the NAM at all, and is predicting record snows for our area -- 20-30 inches in the latest warning. Regardless of what ends up falling, we are in for a good dousing of snow.

**EDIT at 1145 a.m. light snow began falling in Annapolis**

Below are the NAM forecasts, for comparison: top figure is for this current storm; bottom figure, for the 19 Dec storm. The QPFs look amazingly similar.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-WVZ050>055-501>504-060100-/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100207T0300Z/
...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ...WASHINGTON ...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
1154 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM SUNSET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE-QUARTER MILE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN HEAVY SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO WELL BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE...PRODUCING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH LATE TODAY. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREAS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND LIFE-THREATENING. HELP YOUR LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENT FIRST RESPONDERS AND TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES BY STAYING OFF THE ROADS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTLINE.

KRAMAR

Looks like not a question of "if" but of "how much?"

The 18Z numerical models are in, and 24 hours out from yet another prolific snowstorm, both the NAM and GFS are very "wet" in their QPF. The NAM predicts somewhere on the order of 3" liquid-equivalent, and GFS about 2.5" liquid-equivalent. Seriously wet. With a 8-1 snow-liquid ratio, a reasonable number given the source of the moisture, that works out to between 20 and 24 inches. Wow. Final question that remains somewhat unanswered is "when?", although latest NAM runs have trended faster - towards onset around 1 p.m. and already > 0.3" qpf by 00Z. The GFS has similar timing with even larger precip amounts by 00Z.

Here we go, again....

Tonight's 00Z NAM-WRF model has again predicted > 1.5" of liquid-equivalent QPF for the winter storm / nor'easter this weekend. It begins precip late afternoon Friday and ends it late afternoon Saturday, although the bulk of the precip looks to fall overnight Friday. The culprit is a combination of a high-amplitude shortwave trough in the mid-levels (reference the 500 hPa forecast for 12Z Saturday) and brief jet dynamics in the upper levels of the troposphere (reference 300 hPa chart valid 00Z Saturday), which puts us in the right-entrance region of a very strong speed maximum.
The GFS model is faster with precip onset/exit, bringing nearly 0.5" QPF by 00Z Saturday, but incidentally has about the same total QPF, between 1.25" and 1.5" liquid-equivalent. If this all fell as snow, we'd see on the order of 12-15" of heavy, wet snow. If mesoscale banding sets up and enhances totals, we'd get more snow; if a changeover to rain or sleet occurs, we'd of course see much less snow. We'll see what falls... stay tuned.

Satellite image of the mid-Atlantic snow

I thought this was an interesting image: shows the dividing lines, both north and south, of the recent mid-Atlantic snow event. Basically all the frozen precip remained between roughly +/- 50 miles of Interstates 40 (in the south) and 70 (in the north).

Below the visible satellite image is an analyzed image of the snow/sleet totals, courtesy of NWS-Raleigh.

Winter 2009-2010 in Annapolis: Round 2

After a wholloping snow storm ("Round 1") back on 19 December, during which I recorded 22" of snow in my yard, Annapolis was hit with another fairly significant snow event yesterday. I'll remember this most recent snow event ("Round 2") not for it's ferocity of wind or for its mammoth snow totals, but instead for its surprise. I discussed early in the week with my students the possibility of 8-10" of snow by the weekend, only to have the QPF bullseye shift south in each successive model run. The 06Z NAM-WRF run of Fri 29 Jan went so far as to predict only 0.01" of liquid-equivalent for our area (granted with a fairly tight gradient of precip, with over 1" of QPF just to our south in south-central VA). I put up that image in both my classes and basically told my students to enjoy a dry Saturday. Subsequent model runs began moving the QPF maximum farther north, but even as late as 12Z yesterday, none of the reliable models indicated that Annapolis would receive significant QPF (all were then indicating between 0.25-0.5" liquid-equivalent). So needless to say when the precip began in earnest a little after 9 a.m., and lasted through 7 p.m., giving a total of 8", I was quite surprised. I think the object lesson from this event is to not be so black-and-white with a forecast, but present the summary of the model output with the nuance that it deserves. (Still not sure how you can "nuance" yourself from 0.01" to > 0.50" of QPF in 26 hrs, though!)

Here are a few pics from the event. I walked over to Jose and Juan Carlos's house in the morning to retrieve my camera and talked them into coming back to my place to spend the afternoon downloading music videos from YouTube and eating soup. We went out to play in the snow (and measure it... what would a good meteorologist be without at least taking some visual observations?!) To that end, I measured 5.8" at 345 PM (1945 UTC), and 7.5" at 545 PM (2145 UTC). Other nearby observers measured 8" in Annapolis at 8 p.m., and my observation agrees well with that, so I'm saying that 8" fell in the Annapolis area yesterday.

Finally, as a heads-up, models are showing cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast *twice* this week: once on/about Tue/Wed, and again next weekend Fri/Sat. ECMWF and CMC, two pretty reliable models, are showing strong cyclogenesis for the 2nd event, and the GFS shows low pressure formation as well, just not as strong. We'll see what falls. Already this winter has seen approx 33" of snow in Annapolis, 22" from the 19 Dec storm, 8" from the 30 Jan storm, and ~3" from various other small events.

¡¡¡POST 400!!!

Happy 400th post! What a roller-coaster 4.5 years it's been. I started blogging in August 2005, and now it's nearly February 2010. Those who are following along in the cross-posting via Facebook, feel free to check out the blog and its archive at Honor... Courage... Commitment. From Barbados to Austria to Chile to the United States, many of the posts detail travels I've had based from various places I've lived. But if there's one theme interwoven throughout the posts, it's weather. I've experienced some amazing weather events in these past years, and felt compelled to comment on other events that I didn't even experience. I haven't "tagged" my posts like other bloggers, but I'm certain weather and weather-related events would win, hands down (even more than travel, although that'd probably come in a close second!)

So I give a hearty "THANK YOU" to all my readers, especially those in far-flung places like Norman, OK, Santiago, Chile, Sandnes, Norway, Bagatelle, Barbados, and Graz, Austria. An equally-hearty thanks to all my commenters; I feel connected with you even though the distance is large.

God bless you all, and here's to the next 400 posts!

You may recognize that I have two photos at the top of my blog that I occasionally change: the banner image along with the introduction to me. Here's a look back at how they've changed, from October 2005, when I changed the background behind the blog title from orange to a picture, through today (well, earlier this fall was the last time I modified either the title image or the introductory photo).

First the title images:
















Now the introductory images:

"Carolinas Crusher", 10 years later

Ten years ago, during my junior year at UNC, North and South Carolina were surprised by a sudden, and very intense, low pressure system that ended up dropping 15+ inches of snow over a large area. The NWS-Raleigh office has a great write-up of the event, so I won't rehash all the details, but to summarize, convective activity the previous day over deep south AL/LA/GA contributed to amplification of a low-latitude shortwave trough, and 24 hrs later a broad baroclinic leaf of precip had developed over the mid-Atlantic states. The NWS offices were all caught off-guard; I remember them issuing the Winter Weather advisories & warnings post-facto, i.e., issuing them like they were severe warnings with 15 min lead-time instead of the normal 24+ hr lead for a winter event.

In Chapel Hill, we enjoyed sledding on the Bowles Dr. hill (that led down from Chase dining hall toward the Dean Dome), "snow wars" between Hinton James and Eringhaus dorms, and lots of traipsing around in the knee-deep snow. Adam Cline and I went out goofing around in his jeep about 11 p.m. and ended up helping a few guys push their cars out of ditches. While we were out driving around, I heard my first (and only, to date) instance of thunder snow. It was surreal. Classes were cancelled for 2.5 days and a great time was had by all. The official NWS total for Chapel Hill was 14", which was exceeded (for my personal-best highest event-total snowfall) this past December, when I measured 20.8" in Annapolis during our mammoth storm on 18-19 Dec.

Here's a satellite pic of the event from 25 Jan 2000, 10 years ago today.

Snow, computers, and dogs

First a word on the snow possibilities at the end of the week: the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC are all hinting at possible precip Fri/Sat, but as always questions remain. QPF amounts vary from about 0.1" to 0.5", and 1000-500 mb thicknesses range from well below 540 dm to well above 540 dm (the 540 dm is a rough rain-snow line proxy). It doesn't give me much confidence that the only models runs that consistently indicate heavier precip in colder air are the 'off-synoptic time' runs (06/18Z); the synoptic-time runs (00/12Z) are drier and warmer in their solutions. Considering this is in the 120-hr time-frame, there is still plenty of time to see what ends up happening.

This afternoon I went over to my friend Oscar's house to help him configure his computer for internet. I got the internet working, and then proceeded to start uninstalling spam programs... and ended up causing his machine to not work at all: neither internet nor anything else. I'm now back here at my apt, with his laptop, and am looking at a multi-hour job to restore it back to at least marginal working condition. Ugh, that's how things go when you are smart enough to know get yourself into trouble but not smart enough to fix your own problems. I think this is called "teenager". (Doesn't help that his machine is riddled with viruses and the power cord is marginally-functiona....)

Finally, the other beagle dog that my family had while we were growing up, Penny, is on her last leg. She's 15.5 yrs old, which is quite old for any dog, and her health is finally catching up with her: she can't hear, can see only short distances, has various (cancerous?) growths on her limbs, and has stopped eating. On top of this, her heart has been weak for several years, and she's not taking any more medicine for it. This week she'll either die on her own or my parents will take her to be put down. Penny, thanks for a great 15+ years! We'll miss you and Springer!

First-time homebuyer credit: sixteen weeks and counting

I doubt many of my friends are dealing with this, but I wanted to give an update on the supposed "quick" economic stimulus offered to first-time homebuyers. You remember that in 2008, those buyers were offered a $7500 loan, repayable in 3 annual installments, and that in 2009, those buyers were offered an $8000 credit with no need to repay. The program was extended and again modified in late 2009, for those people who'd been living in a home for at least 5 years now eligible for a $6500 credit, as long as they moved/closed on their "new" home by the end of April.

The stimulus was signed in early 2009, and the initial program allowed those 2009 buyers who wanted "quicker" access to their funds the option of modifying their 2008 federal tax returns to take the credit then. That's what I did: I closed on this place on 28 Aug, and mailed the required forms the same afternoon. They were received by the IRS in early Sept., and the clock began ticking. I think that the first filers - those in Jan, Feb, and Mar 2009 - waited only 4-6 weeks for their amended returns to be processed; however, that wait time has now crept up to 12-16 weeks according to the IRS website. I'm entering week 18, and a quick search of various internet forums reveals a smorgasborg of stories: delays, lost paperwork, denials, and a few successes (but usually still these folks had long delays).

So I thought I'd post and start an official clock, just to see how long it finally takes to arrive, if ever: in 2008 I had foreign income and a foreign address, sure-fire red flags to send my amended form into extra review. I'm hoping by Feb 1st - which would be 5 months from closing date. We shall see.