Lots and lots of ... rain!

Hello again after some time en absencia. I'm doing well, just really busy. I owe photos from my homeowners bar-b-que, trip to Salt Lake City in late August, and details about the start of classes. I guess I'm more reluctant to post because of my job - and because how connected everyone is via Google. A simple search brings up all of these posts and all the photos, etc. However I've got a lot of interesting things going on that I want to dialogue about, so hopefully more posts will be coming.

Here's a post for today: the last few runs of NCEP NWP models have been hinting at a deluge of precip for the upper Chesapeake Bay this weekend. If the NAM/WRF is correct, Annapolis and surroundings could be looking at receiving upwards of 10% of our annual precip in just the next 72 hours, somewhere between 3-4" of precip (average of 35-40" per annum). See attached figure. The GFS is much less bullish, and I'm curious why the difference: less latent heat release feedback, weaker microphysical parameterization, lower horizontal resolution, or some combination of the three? GFS has about 1/3 to 1/2 of the total precip (a still-healthy 1.5"-2"; see second attached figure). We will see what falls.