Desierto norte de Chile

Monday, December 14, 2009

A snowstorm for the ages, or .... ?

The past several initializations of various models have been vascillating around a weekend snow/no-snow solution: at present the Canadian Met Office model (CMC) and Navy NOGAPS model are both showing a deep mid- and upper-level trough amplifying over the Ohio and lower-Mississippi river valleys by the end of the weekend. The European Center ECMWF has a similar trough but is not as amplified (and slightly east with the axis), and the NCEP GFS shows a weak vorticity maximum at the base of a non-amplified trough passing quickly eastward. We'll see what solution pans out-- I'd love to see some serious snow (although I've promised to take a Mid to the airport on Sat!) Here's the 12-hr precip forecast from NOGAPS; if this were a perfect-prog, Annapolis would see 10" of heavy, wet snow. Here's hoping!

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