Here we go, again....

Tonight's 00Z NAM-WRF model has again predicted > 1.5" of liquid-equivalent QPF for the winter storm / nor'easter this weekend. It begins precip late afternoon Friday and ends it late afternoon Saturday, although the bulk of the precip looks to fall overnight Friday. The culprit is a combination of a high-amplitude shortwave trough in the mid-levels (reference the 500 hPa forecast for 12Z Saturday) and brief jet dynamics in the upper levels of the troposphere (reference 300 hPa chart valid 00Z Saturday), which puts us in the right-entrance region of a very strong speed maximum.
The GFS model is faster with precip onset/exit, bringing nearly 0.5" QPF by 00Z Saturday, but incidentally has about the same total QPF, between 1.25" and 1.5" liquid-equivalent. If this all fell as snow, we'd see on the order of 12-15" of heavy, wet snow. If mesoscale banding sets up and enhances totals, we'd get more snow; if a changeover to rain or sleet occurs, we'd of course see much less snow. We'll see what falls... stay tuned.