Desierto norte de Chile

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Looks like not a question of "if" but of "how much?"

The 18Z numerical models are in, and 24 hours out from yet another prolific snowstorm, both the NAM and GFS are very "wet" in their QPF. The NAM predicts somewhere on the order of 3" liquid-equivalent, and GFS about 2.5" liquid-equivalent. Seriously wet. With a 8-1 snow-liquid ratio, a reasonable number given the source of the moisture, that works out to between 20 and 24 inches. Wow. Final question that remains somewhat unanswered is "when?", although latest NAM runs have trended faster - towards onset around 1 p.m. and already > 0.3" qpf by 00Z. The GFS has similar timing with even larger precip amounts by 00Z.


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