Whew it's looking WET

The latest NAM/GFS model runs are looking WET for us here in the northern Chesapeake. A large, deep closed upper-level low, currently centered over northern Missouri/southern Iowa, will slowly translate eastward. Embedded speed maxima and vorticity centers will rotate around the low and promote several rounds of coastal cyclogenesis offshore of the mid-Atlantic states. Each of these surface low centers will bring a round of heavy rain. The first round has passed by, with the KNAK out on the Hospital Point grounds of the Academy recording 0.88" already (as of 12:25 p.m.). The 12Z NAM-WRF predicts approximately 3" more QPF on top of this current rainfall (see figure below). Regardless of exactly how much rain falls, this looks to be a very wet period and will certainly bring the Baltimore area back above normal for precipitation for the year.