Desierto norte de Chile

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Flying by Earl, fraternizing with Fiona?

The Atlantic tropics are active again as we enter the 4-week-long climatological peak of the tropical season (late Aug-late Sept). Hurricane Danielle was the first of what looks like 3 consecutive tropical wave systems to develop (and she's now heading NE toward a watery grave south of Greenland). Earl is the next in line and he looks to brush past the northeastern Leeward Islands (Antigua, Virgin Island, maybe Puerto Rico) over the next 2 days. I'm a little worried that Earl won't recurve as fast as all of the models - and subsequently the NHC official forecast - are saying, and will end up close enough to the eastern seaboard to affect my return flight to DCA on Friday afternoon. As of today, about 5 days out, the closest point of approach is still over 500 miles to the east... we'll see what pans out. Finally the last wave, which looks to have a nice spiral surface circulation (but lacks deep thunderstorm clouds over the circulation), will probably develop into Fiona in the next day or two. This system is likely to track farthest south of the 3 waves, perhaps passing through the same northeastern Leeward islands 72 hrs after Earl, then heading in the general direction of the US. We'll wait and see - if anything it'll keep my attention during the AMS meeting this week.

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