Looking rather blocky...

So with SWIFT departing in 8 days, the students are starting to ask questions about the likelihood of severe storms. Thus I turn to the long-range GFS and ECMWF for answers. While we know the specifics of such 8-, 9-, and 10-day forecasts are likely to be poor, perhaps a pattern can be deduced, especially if there exists inter- and intra-model continuity. In this case, there does exist such continuity: both the ECMWF and GFS have been advertising a very blocky pattern in their long-range forecasts. The blocking pattern predicted, an omega block (named for the resemblance to an upside-down capital Greek letter omega in the mid/upper-troposphere height field), would be highly unfavorable for repeated convective storms. Fortunately we have several tours lined up in the first days (Kentucky Day 2, Norman Day 4); hopefully the blocky pattern (which is predicted to start next weekend, 13-14 May) will either not verify or break down quickly. We'll only wait and see.

Besides the long-range, in the medium-range, the models are unanimous in bringing a really good (and slow-moving) trough through the southern plains early next week, with attendant threat of a prolonged severe event.

Attached are long-range GFS and ECMWF 500-hPa predictions.