Hurricane #1 of 2011 in the NATL?

A disturbance east-northeast of the middle Leeward Islands is showing pretty good organization this afternoon, and will likely become Tropical Storm Irene before the end of the weekend. What remains to be seen, however, is if it will strengthen into the season's first hurricane. The statisticians have noted that with the formation, and now landfall and weakening, of Harvey, the North Atlantic has had 8 named tropical systems now form and dissipate without passing through the hurricane stage - a record for the basin. We'll see what soon-to-be Irene does. Interesting, two of this morning's GFS ensemble members take the circulation center directly over Annapolis in about 9 days (that would be Mon 29 Aug). We'll see how that goes, too!