2006 Atlantic hurricane season

On the heels of the hyper-active 2005 Atlantic season, any return to normalcy would appear to be far below it. Thus, with our 9 tropical storms (~ 10 are average), 5 hurricanes (~ 6 are average), and 2 'major' (> category 3) hurricanes (~ 3 are average), this year compares well with the 30-year mean level of activity. Maybe the basin has one hurricane left in it, which would bring the numbers right at the 30-yr mean.

I was thinking of the many forecasts issued at the start of this year, and most (all?) of them were forecasting significantly more activity than 9/5/2. One group even went as far as to say that the Northeast, Carolinas, and Texas faced a particularly acute threat -- and that the US would experience 6 "hits" (guess that means landfalls?), of which 5 would be hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. This type of bold forecast nicely illustrates the trickiness and uncertainty associated with climatological analogues. (For comparison, 3 tropical storms have 'hit' the US this year -- two making landfall and one brushing Cape Cod. Not exactly the destructive picture we were told to expect). As a final point, I think it would be very useful to examine the 2006 season post-facto to see if it's possible to identify the physical mechanisms that prevented the expected activity.

Forecasted activity


Actual storm tracks