So maybe it will after all?

The past week I've been following the potential for snow here in the mid-Atlantic for this upcoming weekend. The numerical guidance has been very interesting, mostly for its remarkable *lack* of agreement. Even now, 72 hrs out, you'd think that the general synoptic details would be clear -- i.e., where the sfc low will track, how amplified (phased) the 500 hPa trough will be, etc. I find it amusing that NCEP's HPC has discounted its own two high-quality NWP models (NAM & GFS) and instead gone for an ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solution blend. For example, HPC predicts ~ 0.5" liquid-equivalent for Annapolis 00Z Sun-00Z Mon. Only tonight, for the first time, does the GFS start to hint at precip here (and even still QPF totals are 0.1-0.2" for the time period).

As I said earlier, it'll be interesting to watch what unfolds. This is what makes weather (its predictability) fun to follow!

First img: GFS QPF; Second img: HPC QPF