Desierto norte de Chile

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Storms on Friday and/or Saturday?

I've attached the latest operational NAM/WRF CAPE prediction for 00Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday (Fri. 7pm & Sat. 7pm). If either (or both) map times verify, any storms that do form will have the greatest available potential instability of the season (> 4000 j/kg). Bigger question: will storms form, and if so, where? There has been talk of northern Kansas, etc., but I do not like this location because of the "inverted trough" signature in the MSLP fields (not shown). I think I would rather try the dryline, perhaps closer to a triple-point in s.w./s.cent kansas or n.w. okla, both on Friday & Saturday. [Side note: 00Z models tonight focus more on the inverted pressure trough than on a closed surface low, meaning a triple point would be harder to locate... perhaps wherever the dryline intersected said inverted pressure trough...] One final note: both NAM/WRF and GFS are consistent on Friday with precipitation in the body of Oklahoma. I do not know the forcing mechanism (perhaps the dryline?), but wow, if storms do go up on Friday in a moderately-sheared and high-cape environment, they could be quite impressive. Still think the better show will be Saturday [altho mid-level (900-700mb) modeled winds have trended stronger over past 36 hrs, lending more credence to the 'Friday will be good' camp. Maybe a post-frisbee trip to Binger!?]

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