Desierto norte de Chile

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Believe it when I see it


The HPC QPF forecasts of late have been very generous, calling for significant precipitation over a broad region up and down the east coast. I haven't been saving the forecasts, so I can only speak qualitatively, but when Annapolis KNAK receives 0.09" during a period when HPC had called for > 1.00", that's an overprediction!

So this week, the 5-day accumulated precipitation forecast calls for between 2-3" between now and Sunday night. I know that the forcing mechanisms are there (deep synoptic-scale trough lifting out now; new one coming in behind it; large-circulation tropical cyclone lurking to the south & predicted to undergo extratropical transition over the Carolinas while interacting with a frontal boundary)... but nevertheless I'll believe >3" of rain it when I see it.

2 Comments:

At 10:10 AM, September 29, 2010, Blogger Chris said...

Oh great guru of all things wet and windy... any concrete predictions (lol, I know, I know) for the Front Range/Wyoming?
BTW... proud of what you've accomplished. Always good to see someone from 340 make it big. That and I'm jealous of storm-chasing. Keep on keeping on and have a wonderful day.
Oh, one last question... how does the magic 8 ball come in on Eastern Carolina hurricane forecasting? Wondered where Skip Waters got his great ideas.

 
At 7:08 AM, September 30, 2010, Blogger mellanie said...

Crabtree Creek was measured at 9" this morning on the news, and they just said that 3-6" are predicted just today. I wonder if my primary way home will be flooded today. Back in 2006, it crested at 23".

 

Post a Comment

<< Home

    Newer›  ‹Older