2006 Atlantic hurricane season

On the heels of the hyper-active 2005 Atlantic season, any return to normalcy would appear to be far below it. Thus, with our 9 tropical storms (~ 10 are average), 5 hurricanes (~ 6 are average), and 2 'major' (> category 3) hurricanes (~ 3 are average), this year compares well with the 30-year mean level of activity. Maybe the basin has one hurricane left in it, which would bring the numbers right at the 30-yr mean.

I was thinking of the many forecasts issued at the start of this year, and most (all?) of them were forecasting significantly more activity than 9/5/2. One group even went as far as to say that the Northeast, Carolinas, and Texas faced a particularly acute threat -- and that the US would experience 6 "hits" (guess that means landfalls?), of which 5 would be hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. This type of bold forecast nicely illustrates the trickiness and uncertainty associated with climatological analogues. (For comparison, 3 tropical storms have 'hit' the US this year -- two making landfall and one brushing Cape Cod. Not exactly the destructive picture we were told to expect). As a final point, I think it would be very useful to examine the 2006 season post-facto to see if it's possible to identify the physical mechanisms that prevented the expected activity.

Forecasted activity


Actual storm tracks

Travels, travels, and more travels: Rome, Pompeii, Naples, Slovenia, Croatia, and Budapest

Two weeks ago, I took the night train to Rome to visit with Bethany and her friends Carrie and James. She came back to Graz with me, and we hired a car and took a day trip to Slovenia and Croatia. Do you know that at the top of the Schlossberg in Graz, there is a 2-person elevator, express destination down to the WC? Crazy!

Last weekend I went to Budapest (Hungary) with Florian and Marcus. Here is a short photojournal of our adventures. Captions are *above* the images.

Roma et Pompeii et Napoli


The Pantheon



Carrie, James, and Bethany


John the Baptist "baptizing" Jesus (where is the River Jordan?)


A door overlooking the Foro Romano


The forum (foro romano)


The Arch of Septimius Severus (in the forum)


Lunch just outside the ruins of Pompeii. Bethany's sandwich was the "best she'd ever eaten".



Pompeii


Bethany in Pompeii


Brad in Pompeii


Mt. Vesuvius


Cast of a former Pompeiian


Carrie in a courtyard in Pompeii


Pompeii tilework


The entryway to a large house in Pompeii


A courtyard with column colonnade


Me and Bethany goofing off in Pompeii



An amphitheater in Pompeii


Yes, we are tourists!





Best pizza in the world, in Naples!


Trevi Fountain, Rome


SPQR, or Senatus Populusque Romanus (the Senate and the Roman People)


Chilling on the Spanish Steps


Free hugs at the Spanish steps! You bet I took advantage!




Slovenia und Croatia

Bethany and I took a road trip to Slovenia and Croatia



Slovenian border


Slovenian church


Croatia!


A nice spot for a date, don't you think? Trakoscan Castle, Croatia


View of the Croatian countryside


Bethany at the castle


Through one of the keyholes in the castle parapet


Bethany and me at the castle



Fun in Graz

It's cold in Graz!


View up the Schlossberg


Graz


Schlossberg (clock tower) in Graz


Garden at the top of the Schlossberg hill


A building in city center, Graz

Slovenia und Buschenschank!

On Saturday, I joined some friends from the Wegener Center on a nice hike along the southern border between Austria and Slovenia. We had some sturm (pre-wine grape juice), and then stopped for authentic, home-grown Austrian food. Bon appetite!

Sunday night thoughts.

Tonight I read another excerpt from the Urbana classics, this one from the 1981 conference. Once again I am challenged by the speaker, challenged to deepen my faith in the God I profess to follow. Perhaps the contextual timing is right for me to receive such a message, as I embrace with hesitation the uncertainties of deciding my future: where will I go, what will I do, with whom will I be? These questions are common to students; now is simply my time to take them up. After reminding the audience that Jesus Christ is the great shepherd, Mr. Munger gives this reassurance:

"'Come, follow me,' Jesus said. He did not say where he was going to lead them nor did he designate the place of their ministry. The call of Jesus is first and always to himself, to walk with him and be at his side. His first call is not to a particular mission or movement. He does not hand us a plan telling us exactly where we are to be or what we are to do at any particular moment. Rather, he offers himself, saying, 'Follow me.' Martin Luther confessed, 'I do not know the way that I take, but well do I know my guide.'

We need not be anxious about getting the right directions from God or be concerned about whether we will have the courage to follow his direction. Instead, we are simply to put ourselves in the shepherd's care. If we want to do his will, he will see to it that we have the necessary information and put within us the desire and the energy to move out with him. He is able even to overrule past mistakes and in the process mature us in Christian life and service. The words of the apostle Paul encourage us: 'God is always at work in you to make you willing and able to obey his own purpose.'

Here is the key to guidance: we must be willing to do God's will before we know what it is. To trust ourselves to him. To be taught, shaped and led as he shall choose."

Mr. Munger goes on to say that the way we are "taught, shaped, and led" is through daily prayer, scripture study, and fellowship with other followers of Christ. Sounds reasonable to this doubter! I don't know what will come from these decisions to be made, but I am definitely challenged to abandon my fears and cling to all that is promised me by God. Your thoughts?

Alles Gute zum Geburtstag! (happy birthday)

On Sonntag, September 24, I turned 27. Wow, and yikes, I am getting OLD! Haha. Seriously I feel young and spry. Guess its better than feeling old and crusty ;) To celebrate, I joined Barbara, Katherine, and Ulf (Katherine is Flo's sister, and Ulf is her husband) and headed into the Austrian countryside. We arrived at a reconstructed village of old Styrian (the state where Graz is located) and Carinthian (the adjacent state to our SW) homes. The sights were neat, and reminded a little me of colonial North Carolina (you know, those field trips you took as a kid to teach you about historical things nearby). Enjoy some photos.

Pumpkins
**06 Oct. edit: gourds, not pumpkins**


A reconstructed farmhouse.


A water wheel.


Hand-making pumpkin seed oil (used for salad dressing; tasty.)


Trying on a wool hat. Scratchy!


Wetter-turm. Where they took weather measurements.




Ideallic Austrian house with geraniums.


Ulf and Katherine.


The three of us in front of an 1800s schoolhouse.


A Styrian choir!


Local wildflowers.


An Austrian Oompah band!! They weren't bad either.


Regular Austrians enjoying some food.


Mmm. Bratwurst.


Te quiero y mi burro sabe mas que tu!!

My neighborhood and Graz

Here are a few more photos of my building, my street, and my city of Graz. Enjoy!

My building and street.




Graz.


Graz, looking back toward my building (I haven't picked it out yet, but it's up the hill in the center of the image).


Graz.


Some of the color of Graz.


Graz, looking toward the city center.


Graz, with the river Mur running through it.


More color of Graz.


Graz, with the Schlossberg clock tower in left foreground.


Guess what city this is. Oh yea, it's Graz.


View from the street, looking back up the Schlossberg hill.

La République Française

After spending two days in Austria, I boarded the night train (long story, was supposed to fly, but alas...) from Vienna to Paris to visit Bethany. She prepared a nice beef stroganoff meal for me Saturday, and then we joined up with her friend and co-worker and went out of town to Vaux le Vicomte, a sweet chateau decorated with candlelight. Seriously, this place was uber romantic, with all the candles and gardens. Aftar touring the chateau, we sat and enjoyed a serenade of classical/opera music and took in the stars. Not bad for a first date: she paid for the chateau, and I paid for the McDonald's. On Sunday, I went to the french church with Bethany and other members of her team (don't worry, they translated for me!). Bethany made her specialty enchiladas for lunch (they were scrumptious, really). In the afternoon, we hit up this neat park with a fountain and waterfall, and then spent the evening searching the internet for return travel options. Monday was my first real day in Paris proper. We started with the view from Galleries Lafayette, then explored Chatelet (and its crazy maze of metro connections!) and enjoyed warm sandwiches by the fountain. Afterwards it was over to Trocadero for some Eiffel Tower viewing, and we found a nice grassy area to continue our conversation from the park the day before. To cap the night off, we enjoyed grec food at Pont Neuf (an island in the Seine). We wandered back through the latin quarter and had a relaxed cup of coffee before calling it a night. For my last full day in France, a family had us over for lunch, and then I spent the afternoon with a friend while Bethany taught. We met back in Paris at Pont des Artes, her favorite bridge over the river, for a fun picnic of cheese and fruits and a baugette. While strolling around, we ran across this guy playing accordion music on another bridge over the Seine (yes, again, really romantic stuff!). A funny highlight: I almost ran into a self-cleaning pod toilet (Bethany saved me from intense embarrassment). After a sleepless night of talking and processing, I departed from Gare de l'Est on the night train back to Austria. This summary doesn't give many of the more salient details; for those you'll have to call me ;) Nevertheless, the trip to 'see about a girl' was successful!


Le Tour Eiffel


Bethany and the Opera House, view from Galleries Lafayette


Us in front of the opera house


Musée de Louvre


Tower view from Trocadero


Pont Des Artes


Vaux de Vilcomte


Vaux de Vilcomte


Vaux de Vilcomte


Fountain at Chatelet
Mmmm. Enchiladas

My first few days in Austria

After being delayed 24 hours by thunderstorms in Chicago (that's what happens when you have 4 connections ... miss the first and everything goes haywire!), I arrived in Graz late in the evening September 13. Flo and Barbara fed me a great-tasting chili dish for dinner, and then it was off to bed. The next day, Barbara took me around the university, where I met my colleagues at the Wegener Center, opened a bank account, and began the still-continuing process of acquainting myself with Graz (and it with me!). We met Florian for lunch at the Zu Den 3 Goldenen Kugeln, a nice restaurant/pub near campus. I had the wienerschnitzel & pommes (fried pork and fries, or on the menu, menüteller 3), along with a nice glass of apfelsaft (apple juice). Then we went to the top of Graz's main tourist attraction (but it's also popular with the locals), the Schlossberg. It's a large hill 100 m above the city with a clock tower near the top. Some pictures from the Schlossberg:>