Score one for the NHC (well, maybe 0.8 out of 1)

As hurricane Dolly bears down on far south Texas tonight, I went back and checked the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's track forecast. The image at left is the first forecast issued for Dolly, and it is about as good as it gets. The subsequent track forecasts wobbled a few tens of kilometers north or south, but essentially stayed focused right on the US/Mexico border region. I give 0.8 out of 1 because the speed & intensity, two elements certainly important in any hurricane forecast, were not correct. Officially, then, the 48 hr error will be around 300 km and the intensity error probably around 20 knots (if Dolly makes landfall as a 75 kt hurricane). Regardless, I think Dolly is another clear example of a successful forecasting effort from NHC, and the people of south Texas and northern Mexico were very well served by their efforts.