Fay makes it to Florida

I posted last week about a possible SE coast hurricane, and the wave that was of interest eventually developed into tropical storm Fay and tracked farther south & west than originally predicted. Fay formed near Haiti, moved along the south coast of Cuba, and is now tracking northward through Florida. This was a classic example of the difficulties which remain in forecasting tropical cyclone genesis, and also of the uncertain nature of TC-land interaction (in particular, mountainous terrain). I hope to work on a project or two exploring these issues. Fay looks to continue tracking NNW, eventually turning westward... will be interesting to see if she re-emerges in the Gulf of Mexico (or the Atlantic) and restrengthens. It's worth noting that Fay's structure from radar just after landfall was very impresssive for a 60 mph tropical storm... a rain-free eye enclosed by 30-50 miles of intense convection. It's possible the intensity will be revised upward in the post-storm analysis.