Desierto norte de Chile

Thursday, August 14, 2008

A possible hurricane approaching the SE coast early next week?

In keeping with the weather theme, this time in the opposite hemisphere, another interesting feature to watch in the next few days will be the potential development of TD 6 / TS-Hurr Fay near the Bahamas. Currently the disturbance is passing just north of the leeward islands, and its mid-level circulation is really evident from satellite & Guadeloupe radar. Nearly all the NWP models develop it into a tropical storm (and some a hurricane), and all but the NOGAPS model curve it poleward - towards the SE coast - as it tracks through the Bahamas (NOGAPS tracks it along the north coast of Cuba and into the GoM). However, serious questions remain with the evolution of this disturbance (including "will it develop?", "How strong will it get?", and "Where will it go?"). Regardless, the mid-level vorticity center is much better organized than at any other time in its westward track across the Atlantic, and as such will be interesting to watch.



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