Va o no va a llover? Will it, or won't it, rain?

The big question for this weekend in Santiago is just how much rainfall are we going to receive. The numerical models (well, MM5, GFS, and NOGAPS) have been in very good agreement the past several runs in bringing a strong trough system through central Chile tonight and tomorrow, resulting in a very heavy - and prolonged - period of valley rain and mtn snow. The attached 2 figures are from the 12Z run of the GFS and the 00Z run of our in-house MM5. The GFS is predicting over 100 mm, and the MM5 over 50 mm. While I want to see a really good rain event (esp after my friends back in Norman got a right good deluge last weekend... 3" in about 6"), I don't want to see the city wash away! If we get 110 mm, that would be 4.33", and would represent nearly 40% of the annual rainfall. Stay tuned. It's already been sprinkling here, and the cloud bases have been lowering all day. Should be fun!